评估 CMIP6 模式在模拟北太平洋海面盐度十年变异方面的作用

IF 6 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Science China Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI:10.1007/s11430-023-1373-8
Jian Chen, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Wenrong Bai, Chengzu Bai, Lu Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考虑到十年期气候预测的前景,从耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)的 25 个耦合模式中评估了北太平洋海表盐度十年变率(NPSDV)及其潜在作用力。结果表明,CMIP6 模式总体上再现了 NPSDV 的空间模式。在强流区,如黑潮-大矢盐扩流(KOE)、北太平洋洋流(NPC)、加利福尼亚洋流系统(CCS)和阿拉斯加沿岸洋流(ACC),SSS异常的标准偏差很大,这反映在NPSDV的两个主导模式上:在KOE-NPC与CCS-ACC上的偶极子与非相位载荷,以及在KOE-NPC上的单极子与正载荷。模式的阶次对表现出差异的个别模型很敏感,特别是在时间相位和功率谱方面。使用阶数为 1 的自回归模型来重构具有多个强迫项的 NPSDV。在阶-1 的自回归模型中,强迫因子的影响一般较弱,这部分与高估了 NPSDV 相对于强迫因子的响应时间有关。大多数 NPSDV 变差源于 SSS 异常的持续性,但不同模式的主要强迫因子是不同的。模拟 NPSDV 的模式多样性主要来自热带厄尔尼诺-南方涛动通过遥联系对北太平洋涛动或阿留申低纬度的影响,并与时间尺度有关。相反,能够很好地再现 NPSDV 的模式并不依赖于那些受北太平洋海洋过程影响较大的模式。
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Evaluating CMIP6 models in simulating the North Pacific decadal variability in sea surface salinity

The North Pacific sea surface salinity (SSS) decadal variability (NPSDV) and its potential forcing were evaluated from 25 coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) considering the prospects for decadal climate predictions. The results indicated that the CMIP6 models generally reproduced the spatial patterns of NPSDV. The large standard deviation of the SSS anomaly over the strong current regions, such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), North Pacific Current (NPC), California Current System (CCS), and Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC), is reflected in the two leading modes of NPSDV: a dipole with out-of-phase loadings in the KOE-NPC versus CCS-ACC and a monopole with positive loading over the KOE-NPC. The order of modes is sensitive to individual models that exhibit discrepancies, especially in temporal phases and power spectra. An autoregressive model of order-1 was used to reconstruct the NPSDV with several forcing terms. The generally weaker influence of forcings in an autoregressive model of order-1 is partly related to the overestimated response time of NPSDV relative to forcings. Most NPSDV variances originate from the persistence of SSS anomalies, but the dominant forcing factors are diverse among models. The model diversity for the NPSDV simulation mainly arises from the influence of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation through teleconnection on the North Pacific Oscillation or Aleutian Low with timescale dependence. Conversely, models that can reproduce the NPSDV well are not dependent on those with larger impacts from the North Pacific oceanic processes.

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来源期刊
Science China Earth Sciences
Science China Earth Sciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
5.30%
发文量
135
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Science China Earth Sciences, an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and published by Science China Press, is committed to publishing high-quality, original results in both basic and applied research.
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