Jian Chen, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Wenrong Bai, Chengzu Bai, Lu Wang
{"title":"评估 CMIP6 模式在模拟北太平洋海面盐度十年变异方面的作用","authors":"Jian Chen, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Wenrong Bai, Chengzu Bai, Lu Wang","doi":"10.1007/s11430-023-1373-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The North Pacific sea surface salinity (SSS) decadal variability (NPSDV) and its potential forcing were evaluated from 25 coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) considering the prospects for decadal climate predictions. The results indicated that the CMIP6 models generally reproduced the spatial patterns of NPSDV. The large standard deviation of the SSS anomaly over the strong current regions, such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), North Pacific Current (NPC), California Current System (CCS), and Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC), is reflected in the two leading modes of NPSDV: a dipole with out-of-phase loadings in the KOE-NPC versus CCS-ACC and a monopole with positive loading over the KOE-NPC. The order of modes is sensitive to individual models that exhibit discrepancies, especially in temporal phases and power spectra. An autoregressive model of order-1 was used to reconstruct the NPSDV with several forcing terms. The generally weaker influence of forcings in an autoregressive model of order-1 is partly related to the overestimated response time of NPSDV relative to forcings. Most NPSDV variances originate from the persistence of SSS anomalies, but the dominant forcing factors are diverse among models. The model diversity for the NPSDV simulation mainly arises from the influence of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation through teleconnection on the North Pacific Oscillation or Aleutian Low with timescale dependence. Conversely, models that can reproduce the NPSDV well are not dependent on those with larger impacts from the North Pacific oceanic processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":21651,"journal":{"name":"Science China Earth Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evaluating CMIP6 models in simulating the North Pacific decadal variability in sea surface salinity\",\"authors\":\"Jian Chen, Hailong Liu, Pengfei Lin, Wenrong Bai, Chengzu Bai, Lu Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11430-023-1373-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The North Pacific sea surface salinity (SSS) decadal variability (NPSDV) and its potential forcing were evaluated from 25 coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) considering the prospects for decadal climate predictions. The results indicated that the CMIP6 models generally reproduced the spatial patterns of NPSDV. The large standard deviation of the SSS anomaly over the strong current regions, such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), North Pacific Current (NPC), California Current System (CCS), and Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC), is reflected in the two leading modes of NPSDV: a dipole with out-of-phase loadings in the KOE-NPC versus CCS-ACC and a monopole with positive loading over the KOE-NPC. The order of modes is sensitive to individual models that exhibit discrepancies, especially in temporal phases and power spectra. An autoregressive model of order-1 was used to reconstruct the NPSDV with several forcing terms. The generally weaker influence of forcings in an autoregressive model of order-1 is partly related to the overestimated response time of NPSDV relative to forcings. Most NPSDV variances originate from the persistence of SSS anomalies, but the dominant forcing factors are diverse among models. The model diversity for the NPSDV simulation mainly arises from the influence of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation through teleconnection on the North Pacific Oscillation or Aleutian Low with timescale dependence. Conversely, models that can reproduce the NPSDV well are not dependent on those with larger impacts from the North Pacific oceanic processes.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21651,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Science China Earth Sciences\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Science China Earth Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1373-8\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Science China Earth Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1373-8","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evaluating CMIP6 models in simulating the North Pacific decadal variability in sea surface salinity
The North Pacific sea surface salinity (SSS) decadal variability (NPSDV) and its potential forcing were evaluated from 25 coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) considering the prospects for decadal climate predictions. The results indicated that the CMIP6 models generally reproduced the spatial patterns of NPSDV. The large standard deviation of the SSS anomaly over the strong current regions, such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), North Pacific Current (NPC), California Current System (CCS), and Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC), is reflected in the two leading modes of NPSDV: a dipole with out-of-phase loadings in the KOE-NPC versus CCS-ACC and a monopole with positive loading over the KOE-NPC. The order of modes is sensitive to individual models that exhibit discrepancies, especially in temporal phases and power spectra. An autoregressive model of order-1 was used to reconstruct the NPSDV with several forcing terms. The generally weaker influence of forcings in an autoregressive model of order-1 is partly related to the overestimated response time of NPSDV relative to forcings. Most NPSDV variances originate from the persistence of SSS anomalies, but the dominant forcing factors are diverse among models. The model diversity for the NPSDV simulation mainly arises from the influence of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation through teleconnection on the North Pacific Oscillation or Aleutian Low with timescale dependence. Conversely, models that can reproduce the NPSDV well are not dependent on those with larger impacts from the North Pacific oceanic processes.
期刊介绍:
Science China Earth Sciences, an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and published by Science China Press, is committed to publishing high-quality, original results in both basic and applied research.