为分析外国经济歧视条件下的国家发展奠定方法论基础

O. M. Pisareva
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摘要

目的:在评估国民经济的稳定性和易受对外经济活动歧视性限制影响的程度时,在增加使用技术指标的信息含量的基础上,形成分析外部制裁的宏观经济影响的概念方法。方法:本研究基于对大量科学、科学实践和专家信息来源的内容分析所获得的数据进行处理和分析,采用了科学概括和分类、经济、专家和统计分析方法。结果:分析了制裁限制对受歧视国家经济可持续创新发展特征的关键指标的影响。在对目标指标组动态进行共轭分析的基础上,提出了评估制裁影响的方法。举例说明了根据受歧视国家社会经济发展重要领域的一套技术指标对国民经济抵制制裁和进出口依赖性进行评估的结果的计算、可视化和解释。考虑到制裁限制的风险,说明了在制定发展战略和方案(在实施进口替代进程、确保技术独立和经济结构调整方面)时适用拟议方法的范围。结论和相关性:在综合使用技术标准分析分组指标动态的基础上分析制裁限制的拟议方法提高了估计其负面影响的可靠性。然而,综合估算并不能使我们证明有选择性和针对性的措施是合理的,这些措施旨在调整国民经济关键领域中特定经济主体活动的体制和组织条件。进一步研究的一个可能方向是开发评估经济部门制裁稳定性的方法和分析工具,以证实 确保其技术独立性的优先事项。
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Formation of methodological foundations for the analysis of national development in conditions of foreign economic discrimination
Purpose: is to form a conceptual approach to the analysis of the macroeconomic effects of external sanctions based on increasing the information content of the use of technical indicators in assessing the stability and vulnerability of the national economy to the effects of discriminatory restrictions in foreign economic activity. Methods: the study is based on the processing and analysis of data obtained as a result of content analysis of a significant number of scientific, scientific-practical, and expert sources of information.Methods of scientific generalization and classification, economic, expert and statistical analysis were used.Results: the analysis of the impact of sanctions restrictions on the key indicators of the characteristics of sustainable and innovative development of the discriminated national economy is carried out. An approach to assessing the impact of sanctions is presented based on a conjugate analysis of the dynamics of target groupings of indicators. An example of calculations, visualization and interpretation of the results of assessing sanctions resistance and export-import dependence of the national economy based on a set of technical indicators for significant areas of socio-economic development of the discriminated country is illustrated. The scope of application of the proposed approach in the formation of the development strategy and program (in terms of the implementation of the process of import substitution, ensuring technological independence and structural adaptation of the economy) is justified, taking into account the risks of sanctions restrictions.Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed approach to the analysis of sanctions restrictions based on the combined use of technical criteria for the dynamics of grouped indicators provides an increase in the reliability of estimates of their negative impact. However, aggregated estimates do not allow us to justify selective and targeted measures aimed at adapting the institutional and organizational conditions of the activities of specific economic agents in key areas of the national economy. A possible direction for further research may be the development of methodological and analytical tools for assessing the sanctions stability of economic sectors to substantiate the priorities of ensuring their technological independence.
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