应对城市管理挑战,实现可持续发展:分析芝加哥贫困社区对犯罪分布的影响

IF 1.7 Q2 SOCIOLOGY Societies Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI:10.3390/soc14080139
Omid Mansourihanis, Mohammad Javad Maghsoodi Tilaki, Shiva Sheikhfarshi, Fatemeh Mohseni, Ebrahim Seyedebrahimi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市犯罪预防仍然是一个与社会经济差距交织在一起的严峻挑战。本研究调查了 2015 年至 2022 年芝加哥城市贫困化与犯罪率下降之间的空间联系,以解决以下问题:社区贫困程度的变化与犯罪率下降模式有何关系?本研究利用综合犯罪事件和人口普查区地区贫困指数(ADI)数据,进行了探索性空间分析、回归建模和本地二元关系分析。研究结果显示,在全市犯罪率普遍下降的同时,芝加哥南区和西区仍存在集中贫困的热点地区。然而,当前的研究发现,在贫困模式和犯罪率下降方面都存在显著的空间异质性,这对实现公平的公共安全成果提出了挑战。令人惊讶的是,虽然 2015 年和 2022 年的犯罪事件能显著预测犯罪率的变化,但在我们的回归模型中,ADI 分数在统计上并不是重要的预测因素。当地的二元分析表明,ADI 变化与各社区犯罪率变化之间存在不同的关系,72.2% 的人口普查区在统计上没有显着关系。这凸显了城市犯罪动态的复杂性以及地方背景对理解这些模式的重要性。我们的研究有助于深入理解城市贫困与犯罪模式之间错综复杂的关系,为政策制定者、执法机构和城市规划者提供有价值的见解。这些研究结果突出表明,有必要采取综合、长期的战略,同时解决犯罪预防和社会经济差异问题,最终营造更安全、更公平的城市环境,并为针对特定社区背景的循证干预措施提供信息。
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Addressing Urban Management Challenges for Sustainable Development: Analyzing the Impact of Neighborhood Deprivation on Crime Distribution in Chicago
Urban crime prevention remains a critical challenge intertwined with socioeconomic disparities. This study investigates the spatial nexus between urban deprivation and crime decline in Chicago from 2015 to 2022, addressing the question: How do changes in neighborhood deprivation relate to crime reduction patterns? Using comprehensive crime incident and census tract Area Deprivation Index (ADI) data, this study conducted exploratory spatial analysis, regression modeling, and local bivariate relationship analysis. The findings reveal persistent hotspots of concentrated deprivation on Chicago’s south and west sides, alongside a general citywide crime decline. However, the current research uncovered significant spatial heterogeneity in both deprivation patterns and crime reduction, challenging the achievement of equitable public safety outcomes. Surprisingly, while crime incidents in 2015 and 2022 significantly predicted crime change, ADI scores were not statistically significant predictors in our regression model. Local bivariate analysis exposed diverse relationships between ADI changes and crime rate changes across neighborhoods, with 72.2% of census tracts showing no statistically significant relationship. This underscores the complexity of urban crime dynamics and the importance of local context in understanding these patterns. Our research contributes a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship between urban deprivation and crime patterns, providing valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and urban planners. These findings highlight the need for integrated, long-term strategies that address both crime prevention and socioeconomic disparities, ultimately fostering safer, more equitable urban environments and informing evidence-based interventions tailored to specific neighborhood contexts.
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来源期刊
Societies
Societies SOCIOLOGY-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
9.50%
发文量
150
审稿时长
11 weeks
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