Predicted distribution of Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi (Tylenchida: Allantonematidae), parasite of the coffee berry borer.

Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi is an endoparasitic nematode of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei. The nematode has only been recorded across a limited geographical range in coffee-growing areas of southeastern Mexico. Because of its confined geographical distribution, the effect of altitude, temperature, and mean annual precipitation on M. hypothenemi's presence/absence in the Soconusco region of Mexico was investigated. The geographical distribution of this parasite was predicted based on current data, using geographical information systems (GIS), the MaxEnt algorithm, and historical data to improve the prediction accuracy for other Neotropical regions. In Soconusco, the presence of this parasite is directly related to annual precipitation, especially in the areas with the highest annual rainfall (4000 - 4700 mm/year). Four species distribution models were generated for the Neotropical region with environmental variables for sites with parasite presence data, predicting a range of possible distribution with a high probability of occurrence in southeastern Mexico and southwestern Guatemala and a low probability in areas of Central and South America. Characterization of the abiotic habitat conditions suitable for M. hypothenemi development allows us to predict its distribution in the Neotropics and contributes to our understanding of its ecological relationship with environmental variables.