Does the Upgrading of Development Zones Improve Land Use Efficiency under the Net-Zero Carbon City Goal? Prefectural-Level Evidence from Quasi-Natural Experiments in China

Given the challenges of restricted land resources and net-zero carbon city initiatives, it is crucial to seek a balance between intensive land use and carbon neutrality during the construction of development zones. By incorporating net-zero carbon balance into the land use efficiency evaluation system and utilizing a quasi-natural experiment based on the 2009 provincial development zone upgrading policy, this study investigates the policy’s impact on urban land use efficiency under the net-zero carbon city goal. The study finds that the upgrading of provincial development zones significantly enhances urban land use efficiency, while exhibiting the dual effects of reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks. Mechanism analysis reveals that the upgrade policy improves land use efficiency by enhancing land-use and environmental regulations, optimizing resource allocation, and fostering green technological innovation. Heterogeneity analyses show that the policy effect is more significant in eastern and central cities, with the impact being strongest in central cities. Additionally, the impact of upgrading to a national high-tech development zone is greater than that of upgrading to a national economic development zone. This article provides insights into how to use industrial policies effectively to achieve intensive land use and high-quality development while aiming for carbon neutrality.