根据栖息地偏好,气候和土地利用变化对候鸟栖息地适宜性的不同影响

IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Anthropocene Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI:10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100447
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们的研究为正在进行的关于气候和栖息地变化对候鸟物种的影响的对话做出了贡献,特别是侧重于这些影响如何根据物种的栖息地偏好而变化。我们使用了 22 种非洲-欧亚候鸟的公民科学数据,并按照阿特金森等人(2014 年)的分类方法,根据栖息地偏好将它们分为五组。利用集合物种分布模型(SDM),我们预测了在不同的气候和土地利用情景下,2040 年至 2100 年整个非洲潜在适宜栖息地的变化。我们的结果表明,气候和土地利用变化对栖息地适宜性的影响各不相同,喜欢灌木和乔木栖息地的物种最容易受到影响。相反,其他类群的物种,如开阔的乡村草原鸟类和农田鸟类的适宜栖息地可能会显著增加。我们预计,栖息地的适宜性将发生深刻变化,南非西部将变得不适合大多数物种,而萨赫勒地区的适宜栖息地则会增加。这些变化的主要驱动因素是生物气候变量而非土地利用变量。栖息地适宜性的变化程度将受到人类社会所遵循的共同社会经济路径的强烈影响。
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Differential impact of climate and land use change on habitat suitability of migrant passerines according to habitat preferences

Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on the impact of climate and habitat changes on migratory bird species, particularly focusing on how these effects vary based on species’ habitat preferences. We used citizen science data for 22 African-Eurasian migratory bird species and categorized them into five groups based on habitat preferences, following the classification methodology of Atkinson et al. (2014). Using ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM), we projected changes in potentially suitable habitats across Africa from 2040 to 2100 under contrasting climate and land use scenarios. Our results indicate a differential impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability, with species preferring habitats with shrubs and trees being the most vulnerable. Conversely, other group species, such as open country-grassland and farmland birds could experience a significant increase in suitable habitat. We anticipate a profound change in habitat suitability, with the western part of South Africa becoming unsuitable for most species, while an increase in suitable habitat is expected in the Sahel. Bioclimatic rather than land use variables emerged as the primary drivers of these changes. The extent of change in habitat suitability will be strongly influenced by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways followed by human societies.

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来源期刊
Anthropocene
Anthropocene Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
审稿时长
102 days
期刊介绍: Anthropocene is an interdisciplinary journal that publishes peer-reviewed works addressing the nature, scale, and extent of interactions that people have with Earth processes and systems. The scope of the journal includes the significance of human activities in altering Earth’s landscapes, oceans, the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems over a range of time and space scales - from global phenomena over geologic eras to single isolated events - including the linkages, couplings, and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of Earth systems. The journal also addresses how such alterations can have profound effects on, and implications for, human society. As the scale and pace of human interactions with Earth systems have intensified in recent decades, understanding human-induced alterations in the past and present is critical to our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the future. The journal aims to provide a venue to focus research findings, discussions, and debates toward advancing predictive understanding of human interactions with Earth systems - one of the grand challenges of our time.
期刊最新文献
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