{"title":"根据栖息地偏好,气候和土地利用变化对候鸟栖息地适宜性的不同影响","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100447","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on the impact of climate and habitat changes on migratory bird species, particularly focusing on how these effects vary based on species’ habitat preferences. We used citizen science data for 22 African-Eurasian migratory bird species and categorized them into five groups based on habitat preferences, following the classification methodology of Atkinson et al. (2014). Using ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM), we projected changes in potentially suitable habitats across Africa from 2040 to 2100 under contrasting climate and land use scenarios. Our results indicate a differential impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability, with species preferring habitats with shrubs and trees being the most vulnerable. Conversely, other group species, such as open country-grassland and farmland birds could experience a significant increase in suitable habitat. We anticipate a profound change in habitat suitability, with the western part of South Africa becoming unsuitable for most species, while an increase in suitable habitat is expected in the Sahel. Bioclimatic rather than land use variables emerged as the primary drivers of these changes. The extent of change in habitat suitability will be strongly influenced by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways followed by human societies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Differential impact of climate and land use change on habitat suitability of migrant passerines according to habitat preferences\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100447\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on the impact of climate and habitat changes on migratory bird species, particularly focusing on how these effects vary based on species’ habitat preferences. We used citizen science data for 22 African-Eurasian migratory bird species and categorized them into five groups based on habitat preferences, following the classification methodology of Atkinson et al. (2014). Using ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM), we projected changes in potentially suitable habitats across Africa from 2040 to 2100 under contrasting climate and land use scenarios. Our results indicate a differential impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability, with species preferring habitats with shrubs and trees being the most vulnerable. Conversely, other group species, such as open country-grassland and farmland birds could experience a significant increase in suitable habitat. We anticipate a profound change in habitat suitability, with the western part of South Africa becoming unsuitable for most species, while an increase in suitable habitat is expected in the Sahel. Bioclimatic rather than land use variables emerged as the primary drivers of these changes. The extent of change in habitat suitability will be strongly influenced by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways followed by human societies.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56021,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Anthropocene\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Anthropocene\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305424000249\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Anthropocene","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305424000249","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Differential impact of climate and land use change on habitat suitability of migrant passerines according to habitat preferences
Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on the impact of climate and habitat changes on migratory bird species, particularly focusing on how these effects vary based on species’ habitat preferences. We used citizen science data for 22 African-Eurasian migratory bird species and categorized them into five groups based on habitat preferences, following the classification methodology of Atkinson et al. (2014). Using ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM), we projected changes in potentially suitable habitats across Africa from 2040 to 2100 under contrasting climate and land use scenarios. Our results indicate a differential impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability, with species preferring habitats with shrubs and trees being the most vulnerable. Conversely, other group species, such as open country-grassland and farmland birds could experience a significant increase in suitable habitat. We anticipate a profound change in habitat suitability, with the western part of South Africa becoming unsuitable for most species, while an increase in suitable habitat is expected in the Sahel. Bioclimatic rather than land use variables emerged as the primary drivers of these changes. The extent of change in habitat suitability will be strongly influenced by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways followed by human societies.
AnthropoceneEarth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
审稿时长
102 days
期刊介绍:
Anthropocene is an interdisciplinary journal that publishes peer-reviewed works addressing the nature, scale, and extent of interactions that people have with Earth processes and systems. The scope of the journal includes the significance of human activities in altering Earth’s landscapes, oceans, the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems over a range of time and space scales - from global phenomena over geologic eras to single isolated events - including the linkages, couplings, and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of Earth systems. The journal also addresses how such alterations can have profound effects on, and implications for, human society. As the scale and pace of human interactions with Earth systems have intensified in recent decades, understanding human-induced alterations in the past and present is critical to our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the future. The journal aims to provide a venue to focus research findings, discussions, and debates toward advancing predictive understanding of human interactions with Earth systems - one of the grand challenges of our time.