Global prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background and aims: Limited data exist regarding the estimate of the prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in the general population. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the global prevalence and risk factors of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

Methods: We searched Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception to 30 April 2024 with no language restriction. We included cross-sectional studies reporting the prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis and/or cirrhosis in a sample of at least 100 individuals aged ≥18 years from the general population. Subjects with cirrhosis were included in the advanced fibrosis group. The pooled prevalence proportions utilizing a random-effects model and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using global data.

Results: A total of 46 studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria, comprising approximately 8 million participants from 21 countries. The pooled prevalence rates of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in the general population were 3.3% (95% CI: 2.4-4.2) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.9-1.7) worldwide, respectively. A trend was observed for an increase in the prevalence of advanced fibrosis (p=0.004) and cirrhosis (p=0.034) after 2016. There were significant geographic variations in the advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis prevalence at continental and national levels (p<0.0001). Potential risk factors for cirrhosis were viral hepatitis, diabetes, excessive alcohol intake, obesity, and male sex.

Conclusions: The prevalence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis is considerable and increasing worldwide with significant geographic variation. Further research is needed to better understand the risk factors and how to mitigate them worldwide to address the growing global burden of cirrhosis.