城市地区多种灾害的相互关系和风险情景:内罗毕和伊斯坦布尔案例

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004413
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Harriet E. Thompson, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Ekbal Hussain, Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Emmah Mwangi, Emine Öner, Vera G. Bukachi, Bruce D. Malamud
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摘要

本文介绍了一种描述全球南部城市地区自然灾害类型、灾害相互关系和风险情景的方法,重点关注肯尼亚内罗毕和土耳其伊斯坦布尔。我们的方法包括:(a)全面描述城市环境中的多种灾害及其相互关系;(b)与当地减灾(DRR)利益相关者合作制定相关的多种灾害情景;(c)分析将这些情景纳入城市减灾工作的可能性。通过对 135 个资料来源(学术和灰色文献、数据库、在线和社交媒体)的严格审查,我们确定了可能影响内罗毕的 19 种自然灾害类型和伊斯坦布尔的 23 种自然灾害类型。在可能存在的 576 种相互关系中,我们分别在内罗毕和伊斯坦布尔进一步确定了 88 对和 105 对灾害相互关系(例如,地震引发山体滑坡)。这些发现被编入一个庞大的数据库,为每个城市创建多种危害风险情景示例提供了依据。这些示例通过利益相关者的参与得到完善,其中包括四次研讨会(47 人参加)和九次与当地减灾利益相关者进行的半结构化访谈。尽管发现了一些益处,但这种参与揭示了在将多种灾害纳入当前城市政策和实践方面存在的巨大差距。治理方面的挑战被强调为一个主要障碍,但也发现了更好地整合的机会,包括不断发展的政策和城市参与者日益增长的意识。我们的方法尤其适用于中低收入国家数据稀缺的城市地区,为探讨各种城市背景下的多重危害问题提供了一个框架。
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Multi-Hazard Interrelationships and Risk Scenarios in Urban Areas: A Case of Nairobi and Istanbul

This paper introduces a methodology for characterizing the breadth of natural hazard types, hazard interrelationships, and risk scenarios in Global South urban areas, focusing on Nairobi, Kenya, and Istanbul, Türkiye. Our approach involves (a) a comprehensive characterization of multi-hazards and their interrelationships in an urban setting, (b) collaborative development of relevant multi-hazard scenarios with local disaster risk reduction (DRR) stakeholders, and (c) analysis of the potential for integrating these scenarios into urban DRR efforts. Using a critical review of 135 sources (academic and gray literature, databases, online, and social media), we identify 19 natural hazard types that might influence Nairobi and 23 in Istanbul. We further identified in Nairobi 88 and Istanbul 105 hazard interrelationship pairs (e.g., an earthquake triggering landslides) out of a possible 576 interrelationships. These findings are cataloged in an extensive database, which informs the creation of multi-hazard risk scenario exemplars for each city. These exemplars are refined through stakeholder engagement, involving four workshops (47 participants) and nine semi-structured interviews with local DRR stakeholders. Despite the identified benefits, this engagement reveals a significant gap in integrating multi-hazards into current urban policy and practice. Governance challenges are highlighted as a key barrier, but opportunities for better integration are also identified, including evolving policies and growing awareness among urban actors. Our approach, particularly relevant in data-scarce urban areas of low- and middle-income countries, provides a framework for exploring multi-hazard issues in various urban contexts.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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