{"title":"估算春节期间天津 PM2.5 浓度的时空分布:烟花爆竹禁放的影响","authors":"Zhifei Liu, Kang Zheng, Shuai Bao, Yide Cui, Yirong Yuan, Chengjun Ge, Yixuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124899","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"off fireworks during the Spring Festival (SF) is a traditional practice in China. However, because of its environmental impact, the Chinese government has banned this practice completely. Existing evaluations of the effectiveness of firework prohibition policies (FPPs) lack spatiotemporal perspectives, making it difficult to comprehensively assess their effects on air quality. Consequently, this study used remote sensing technology based on aerosol optical depth and multiple variables, compared nine statistical learning methods, and selected the optimal model, transformer, to estimate daily spatiotemporal continuous PM concentration datasets for Tianjin from 2016 to 2020. The overall model accuracy reached a root mean square error of 15.30 μg/m³, a mean absolute error of 9.55 μg/m³, a mean absolute percentage error of 21.07%, and an R of 0.88. Subsequently, we analysed the variations in PM concentrations from three time dimensions–the entire year, winter, and SF periods–to exclude the impact of interannual variations on the experimental results. Additionally, we quantitatively estimated firework-specific PM concentrations based on time-series forecasting. The results showed that during the three years following the implementation of the FPPs, firework-specific PM concentrations decreased by 52.70%, 49.76%, and 86.90%, respectively, compared to the year before the implementation of the FPPs. Spatially, the central urban area and industrial zones are more affected by FPPs than the suburbs. However, daily variations of PM concentrations during the SF showed that high concentrations of PM produced in a short period will return to normal rapidly and will not cause lasting effects. Therefore, the management of fireworks needs to consider both environmental protection and the public's emotional attachment to traditional customs, rather than simply imposing a blanket ban on fireworks. We advocate improving firework policies in four aspects–production, sales, supervision, and control–to promote sustainable development of the ecological environment and human society.","PeriodicalId":311,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Pollution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating the spatiotemporal distribution of PM2.5 concentrations in Tianjin during the Chinese Spring Festival: Impact of fireworks ban\",\"authors\":\"Zhifei Liu, Kang Zheng, Shuai Bao, Yide Cui, Yirong Yuan, Chengjun Ge, Yixuan Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124899\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"off fireworks during the Spring Festival (SF) is a traditional practice in China. However, because of its environmental impact, the Chinese government has banned this practice completely. Existing evaluations of the effectiveness of firework prohibition policies (FPPs) lack spatiotemporal perspectives, making it difficult to comprehensively assess their effects on air quality. Consequently, this study used remote sensing technology based on aerosol optical depth and multiple variables, compared nine statistical learning methods, and selected the optimal model, transformer, to estimate daily spatiotemporal continuous PM concentration datasets for Tianjin from 2016 to 2020. The overall model accuracy reached a root mean square error of 15.30 μg/m³, a mean absolute error of 9.55 μg/m³, a mean absolute percentage error of 21.07%, and an R of 0.88. Subsequently, we analysed the variations in PM concentrations from three time dimensions–the entire year, winter, and SF periods–to exclude the impact of interannual variations on the experimental results. Additionally, we quantitatively estimated firework-specific PM concentrations based on time-series forecasting. The results showed that during the three years following the implementation of the FPPs, firework-specific PM concentrations decreased by 52.70%, 49.76%, and 86.90%, respectively, compared to the year before the implementation of the FPPs. Spatially, the central urban area and industrial zones are more affected by FPPs than the suburbs. However, daily variations of PM concentrations during the SF showed that high concentrations of PM produced in a short period will return to normal rapidly and will not cause lasting effects. Therefore, the management of fireworks needs to consider both environmental protection and the public's emotional attachment to traditional customs, rather than simply imposing a blanket ban on fireworks. We advocate improving firework policies in four aspects–production, sales, supervision, and control–to promote sustainable development of the ecological environment and human society.\",\"PeriodicalId\":311,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Pollution\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Pollution\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124899\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Pollution","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124899","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimating the spatiotemporal distribution of PM2.5 concentrations in Tianjin during the Chinese Spring Festival: Impact of fireworks ban
off fireworks during the Spring Festival (SF) is a traditional practice in China. However, because of its environmental impact, the Chinese government has banned this practice completely. Existing evaluations of the effectiveness of firework prohibition policies (FPPs) lack spatiotemporal perspectives, making it difficult to comprehensively assess their effects on air quality. Consequently, this study used remote sensing technology based on aerosol optical depth and multiple variables, compared nine statistical learning methods, and selected the optimal model, transformer, to estimate daily spatiotemporal continuous PM concentration datasets for Tianjin from 2016 to 2020. The overall model accuracy reached a root mean square error of 15.30 μg/m³, a mean absolute error of 9.55 μg/m³, a mean absolute percentage error of 21.07%, and an R of 0.88. Subsequently, we analysed the variations in PM concentrations from three time dimensions–the entire year, winter, and SF periods–to exclude the impact of interannual variations on the experimental results. Additionally, we quantitatively estimated firework-specific PM concentrations based on time-series forecasting. The results showed that during the three years following the implementation of the FPPs, firework-specific PM concentrations decreased by 52.70%, 49.76%, and 86.90%, respectively, compared to the year before the implementation of the FPPs. Spatially, the central urban area and industrial zones are more affected by FPPs than the suburbs. However, daily variations of PM concentrations during the SF showed that high concentrations of PM produced in a short period will return to normal rapidly and will not cause lasting effects. Therefore, the management of fireworks needs to consider both environmental protection and the public's emotional attachment to traditional customs, rather than simply imposing a blanket ban on fireworks. We advocate improving firework policies in four aspects–production, sales, supervision, and control–to promote sustainable development of the ecological environment and human society.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Pollution is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high-quality research papers and review articles covering all aspects of environmental pollution and its impacts on ecosystems and human health.
Subject areas include, but are not limited to:
• Sources and occurrences of pollutants that are clearly defined and measured in environmental compartments, food and food-related items, and human bodies;
• Interlinks between contaminant exposure and biological, ecological, and human health effects, including those of climate change;
• Contaminants of emerging concerns (including but not limited to antibiotic resistant microorganisms or genes, microplastics/nanoplastics, electronic wastes, light, and noise) and/or their biological, ecological, or human health effects;
• Laboratory and field studies on the remediation/mitigation of environmental pollution via new techniques and with clear links to biological, ecological, or human health effects;
• Modeling of pollution processes, patterns, or trends that is of clear environmental and/or human health interest;
• New techniques that measure and examine environmental occurrences, transport, behavior, and effects of pollutants within the environment or the laboratory, provided that they can be clearly used to address problems within regional or global environmental compartments.