A novel nomogram based on the number of positive lymph nodes can predict the overall survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer after radical surgery.

Background: This study aimed to construct a novel nomogram based on the number of positive lymph nodes to predict the overall survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer after radical surgery.

Materials and methods: 2271 and 973 patients in the SEER Database were included in the development set and validation set, respectively. The primary clinical endpoint was OS (overall survival). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen independent risk factors of OS, and then independent risk factors were used to construct a novel nomogram. The C-index, calibration curves, and decision analysis curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram in the development and validation sets.

Results: After multivariate Cox regression analysis, the independent risk factors for OS included age, tumor extent, chemotherapy, tumor size, LN (lymph nodes) examined, and LN positive. A nomogram was constructed by using independent risk factors for OS. The C-index of the nomogram for OS was 0.652 [(95% confidence interval (CI): 0.639-0.666)] and 0.661 (95%CI: 0.641-0.680) in the development and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves and decision analysis curves proved that the nomogram had good predictive ability.

Conclusions: The nomogram based on the number of positive LN can effectively predict the overall survival of patients with pancreatic head cancer after surgery.