{"title":"利用动态排名模型分析和预测男子冰球世界（青少年）锦标赛的成功率","authors":"Vladimír Holý","doi":"arxiv-2409.05714","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"What factors contribute to the success of national teams in the Men's Ice\nHockey World Championships and the Men's Ice Hockey World Junior Championships?\nThis study examines whether hosting the tournament provides a home advantage;\nthe influence of past tournament performances; the impact of players' physical\ncharacteristics such as height, weight, and age; and the value of experience\nfrom the World Championships compared to the NHL and other leagues. We employ a\ndynamic ranking model based on the Plackett-Luce distribution with time-varying\nstrength parameters driven by the score. Additionally, we conduct a forecasting\nanalysis to predict the probabilities of winning the tournament, earning a\nmedal, and advancing to the playoff phase.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analyzing and Forecasting the Success in the Men's Ice Hockey World (Junior) Championships Using a Dynamic Ranking Model\",\"authors\":\"Vladimír Holý\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.05714\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"What factors contribute to the success of national teams in the Men's Ice\\nHockey World Championships and the Men's Ice Hockey World Junior Championships?\\nThis study examines whether hosting the tournament provides a home advantage;\\nthe influence of past tournament performances; the impact of players' physical\\ncharacteristics such as height, weight, and age; and the value of experience\\nfrom the World Championships compared to the NHL and other leagues. We employ a\\ndynamic ranking model based on the Plackett-Luce distribution with time-varying\\nstrength parameters driven by the score. Additionally, we conduct a forecasting\\nanalysis to predict the probabilities of winning the tournament, earning a\\nmedal, and advancing to the playoff phase.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501172,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - STAT - Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - STAT - Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.05714\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.05714","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analyzing and Forecasting the Success in the Men's Ice Hockey World (Junior) Championships Using a Dynamic Ranking Model
What factors contribute to the success of national teams in the Men's Ice
Hockey World Championships and the Men's Ice Hockey World Junior Championships?
This study examines whether hosting the tournament provides a home advantage;
the influence of past tournament performances; the impact of players' physical
characteristics such as height, weight, and age; and the value of experience
from the World Championships compared to the NHL and other leagues. We employ a
dynamic ranking model based on the Plackett-Luce distribution with time-varying
strength parameters driven by the score. Additionally, we conduct a forecasting
analysis to predict the probabilities of winning the tournament, earning a
medal, and advancing to the playoff phase.
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