欧盟排放交易计划各阶段的地区排放动态

Marco Dueñas, Antoine Mandel
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摘要

本文探讨了 1990 年至 2022 年欧洲各地区经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的关系,特别是欧盟排放交易体系(EU ETS)不同阶段的排放增长率动态。我们发现,受政策框架变化的影响,排放动态呈现出显著的波动性。此外,排放增长率的分布是不对称的,并呈现出肥尾,这表明可能会出现极端排放事件。我们发现各地区之间存在明显差异:与许多发达地区相比,欠发达地区的排放增长率更高,波动性更大,而发达地区则呈现出排放下降和波动性降低的趋势。我们的研究结果突显了排放对政策变化的敏感性,并强调了在排放贸易计划中进行明确有效治理的必要性。
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Regional emission dynamics across phases of the EU ETS
This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and CO$_2$ emissions across European regions from 1990 to 2022, specifically concerning the dynamics of emissions growth rates through different phases of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). We find that emissions dynamics exhibit significant volatility influenced by changing policy frameworks. Furthermore, the distribution of emissions growth rates is asymmetric and displays fat tails, suggesting the potential for extreme emissions events. We identify marked disparities across regions: less developed regions experience higher emissions growth rates and greater volatility compared to many developed areas, which show a trend of declining emissions and reduced volatility. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of emissions to policy changes and emphasise the need for clear and effective governance in emissions trading schemes.
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