Characteristics of inpatient and outpatient respiratory syncytial virus mortality in Gavi-eligible countries

The current understanding of the RSV-related mortality age distribution in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) relies on a limited number of disease incidence studies reporting wide age bands, and lacking specificity to Gavi-eligible countries. Understanding the age distribution of RSV-related deaths is crucial for the implementation of RSV interventions in LMICs that rely on support from Gavi. This study aims to provide the age profile of RSV mortality specifically in Gavi-eligible countries.

Utilizing data from the RSV GOLD project, an ongoing global online mortality registry focusing on children under the age of 5 with laboratory-confirmed RSV infection, we employed two models (Complete Data Model and Prospective Data Model) to estimate the age profiles. To mitigate biases related to age group representation, we applied post-stratification weighting in our analysis.

We included 423 pediatric deaths, including 145 from the community, under 2 years of age from 15 Gavi-eligible countries. Both models identified a peak age at 1 month and found that the majority of RSV-related mortality cases (59–77 %) from Gavi-eligible countries occur before 6 months of life. However, the models exhibited disparities in other age-related metrics. We present fitted age-at-time-of-death probability distributions to aid impact and cost-effectiveness studies.

We expect that implementing infant RSV immunization strategies, such as maternal vaccination or infant immunoprophylaxis, will have high impact on RSV-related mortality in Gavi-eligible countries. The divergent results from the two models underscore the importance of carefully considering potential biases in retrospective and surveillance data when interpreting the age profile of RSV mortality cases in future research.