Spatially explicit priority optimization of land ecosystem services in the ecologically fragile region

Spatially explicit priority optimization based on the tradeoffs and synergies between multiple ecosystem services (ESs) is greatly responsible for improving sustainable land use management and human well-being in ecologically fragile regions (EFRs). Here, Inner Mongolia, a typical EFR in China, was taken as the study area. Its five prominent ESs, i.e., soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and windbreak and sand-fixing (WS), were firstly evaluated. The local bivariate Moran's I and the sensitivity analysis were adopted to identify the spatial relationships between them, and the key social-ecological variables affecting ESs, respectively. To simulate the spatially explicit priority optimization areas, four scenarios were designed using the Bayesian belief network. Results showed the five ESs had heterogeneous spatial distributions and temporal dynamics. Variations in relationships between paired ESs were found across space and time. Regional factors, including both natural and human influence, influenced the ESs. The spatially explicit priority optimization areas for forest and grassland were showed in different areas by the scenario analysis. Besides, diverse sustainable land use policies from the perspectives of protection, planning, and management were also suggested. These findings could provide valuable references for EFR sustainable development worldwide.