对 1996 至 2021 年南极冰盖质量平衡和对全球海平面变化的贡献的协调估算

IF 6 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Science China Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI:10.1007/s11430-023-1394-5
Rongxing Li, Guojun Li, Gang Hai, Huan Xie, Yuan Cheng, Wei Chen, Xiangbin Cui, Minghu Ding, Chunchun Gao, Tong Hao, Changqing Ke, Chuanjin Li, Jin Li, Yan Liu, Jiangjun Ran, Jiawen Ren, Qiang Shen, Yunzhong Shen, Hongling Shi, Songyun Wang, Zemin Wang, Jingang Zhan, Baojun Zhang, Min Zhong, Chunxia Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

南极冰盖(AIS)的冰量一直在减少,并导致全球海平面上升(GSLR)。鉴于南极冰盖的质量足以导致全球海平面上升 58 米,准确估算质量平衡趋势对于监测南极冰盖质量损失和预测海平面上升至关重要。在此,我们提出了一种改进的方法,利用输入输出法、测高法和重力测量法,从多个贡献解中调和出 AIS 及其区域的质量平衡解。与之前的方法(如 IMBIE 2018)相比,该方法利用自适应数据聚合窗口来处理贡献解的异质性,包括解的数量、时间分布、不确定性和估算技术。我们改进了基于回归的方法,采用两步程序,在每种方法(输入-输出、测高或重力测量)内建立集合解,然后估算与方法无关的调和解。我们首次使用了来自 8 个中国机构的 16 个贡献解来估算 1996 年至 2021 年亚洲国际空间站及其区域的调和质量平衡。结果表明,在此期间,AIS 总共损失了 ∼3213±253 Gt 的冰质量,相当于 ∼8.9±0.7 mm 的 GSLR。自 2006 年以来,质量损失持续加速,从 1996-2005 年期间的 88.1±3.6 Gt yr-1 增加到 2006-2013 年期间的 130.7±8.4 Gt yr-1,并进一步增加到 2014-2021 年期间的 157.0±9.0 Gt yr-1。南极洲西部和南极半岛的质量损失信号占主导地位,并清晰地呈现在调和后的估算和贡献方案中,而与所使用的估算方法和地表质量平衡的波动无关。南极洲东部的质量平衡估算仍存在不确定性和挑战。这种协调估算方法可以推广应用,以改进格陵兰冰原和高山冰川地区的质量平衡估算。
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Reconciled estimation of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance and contribution to global sea level change from 1996 to 2021

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been losing ice mass and contributing to global sea level rise (GSLR). Given its mass that is enough to cause ∼58 m of GSLR, accurate estimation of mass balance trend is critical for AIS mass loss monitoring and sea level rise forecasting. Here, we present an improved approach to reconciled solutions of mass balance in AIS and its regions from multiple contributing solutions using the input-out, altimetric, and gravimetric methods. In comparison to previous methods, such as IMBIE 2018, this approach utilizes an adaptive data aggregation window to handle the heterogeneity of the contributing solutions, including the number of solutions, temporal distributions, uncertainties, and estimation techniques. We improved the regression-based method by using a two-step procedure that establishes ensembled solutions within each method (input-output, altimetry, or gravimetry) and then estimates the method-independent reconciled solutions. For the first time, 16 contributing solutions from 8 Chinese institutions are used to estimate the reconciled mass balance of AIS and its regions from 1996 to 2021. Our results show that AIS has lost a total ice mass of ∼3213±253 Gt during the period, an equivalent of ∼8.9±0.7 mm of GSLR. There is a sustained mass loss acceleration since 2006, from 88.1±3.6 Gt yr−1 during 1996–2005 to 130.7±8.4 Gt yr−1 during 2006–2013 and further to 157.0±9.0 Gt yr−1 during 2014–2021. The mass loss signal in the West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula is dominant and clearly presented in the reconciled estimation and contributing solutions, regardless of estimation methods used and fluctuation of surface mass balance. Uncertainty and challenges remain in mass balance estimation in East Antarctica. This reconciled estimation approach can be extended and applied for improved mass balance estimation in the Greenland Ice Sheet and mountain glacier regions.

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来源期刊
Science China Earth Sciences
Science China Earth Sciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
5.30%
发文量
135
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Science China Earth Sciences, an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and published by Science China Press, is committed to publishing high-quality, original results in both basic and applied research.
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