[基于随机森林模型的臭氧时空变化特征及关键影响因素识别:以滁州市为例]。

Q2 Environmental Science 环境科学 Pub Date : 2024-09-08 DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202310113
Bo-da Xin, Lian-Hong Lü, Pei Wang, Wei Li, Lei Wang, Chun Zhou, Jing-Jing Dong, Si-Yi Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

臭氧污染的成因是一个复杂的科学问题。研究不同时间尺度下臭氧的时空变化特征,分析臭氧浓度的关键影响因子,对于精准制定城市大气污染控制措施,改善城市空气质量具有重要意义。在分析滁州市臭氧浓度时空变化特征的基础上,利用斯皮尔曼相关分析和随机森林模型研究了多时间尺度上气象和污染物的12个臭氧影响因子。结果表明:①滁州市臭氧污染水平呈加重趋势,臭氧浓度分布呈现 "东南高、西北低 "的空间格局。2-5月,SO2浓度对O3浓度上升影响较大。6-9 月,PM2.5、PM10 与臭氧呈显著正相关,影响较大。相对湿度、温度和风速对 O3 有明显影响,而气压和每小时降雨量的影响较弱。④ 滁州市的 O3 污染机制由 "污染物控制 "转变为 "气象控制"。在气象和污染物因子中,对 O3 浓度影响最大的三个影响因子是温度、风速和相对湿度,PM10 浓度、PM2.5 浓度和 SO2 浓度也有影响。上述六个影响因素均与臭氧浓度有显著的非线性关系。
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[Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Ozone and Identification of Key Influencing Factors Based on Random Forest Model: A Case Study of Chuzhou City].

The cause of ozone pollution is a complex scientific problem. Studying the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of O3 at different time scales and analyzing the key influencing factors of O3 concentration is of great significance for the precise formulation of urban air pollution control measures and the improvement of urban air quality. Based on the analysis of the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of O3 concentration in Chuzhou City, we studied the 12 ozone-influencing factors of meteorology and pollutants at multiple time scales using Spearman correlation analysis and a random forest model. The results showed that: ① The O3 pollution level of Chuzhou City showed an aggravating trend, and the O3 concentration distribution showed a spatial pattern of "high in the southeast and low in the northwest." ② From February to May, SO2 concentration had a strong impact on the increase in O3 concentration. From June to September, PM2.5 and PM10 were significantly positively correlated with ozone and had a greater impact. ③ Relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed had a significant impact on O3, whereas barometric pressure and hourly rainfall had a weak impact. ④ The O3 pollution mechanism in Chuzhou City changed from "pollutant-controlled" to "meteorology-controlled." ⑤ Among meteorological and pollutant factors, the three influencing factors that had the greatest influence on O3 concentration were temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity, with PM10 concentration, PM2.5 concentration, and SO2 concentration also contributing. All of the above six influencing factors had a significant nonlinear relationship with the O3 concentration.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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