量化新西兰奥特亚罗瓦地区特定年龄的家庭接触者,以建立传染病模型。

IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Royal Society Open Science Pub Date : 2024-10-02 eCollection Date: 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1098/rsos.240550
Caleb Sullivan, Pubudu Senanayake, Michael J Plank
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考虑人口年龄结构和特定年龄的接触模式对于准确模拟人类传染病的动态和影响至关重要。一种常见的方法是使用接触矩阵,估计不同年龄个体之间的接触次数。这些接触矩阵通常基于从人口和社会经济特征与相关人群截然不同的人群中收集的数据。在此,我们使用基于新西兰奥特亚罗瓦人口普查和行政数据的综合家庭组成数据集,构建家庭接触矩阵和可用于建模的合成人口。与通过将国际数据投射到新西兰人口而构建的常用接触矩阵相比,我们研究了使用这些数据参数化的基于区隔的流行病模型和基于代理的流行病模型的行为。我们发现,与使用预测的接触矩阵相比,在基于区隔的模型或基于媒介的模型中使用新西兰家庭数据会导致较高年龄组的发病率降低。当家庭传播相对于非家庭传播更占优势时,这种差异会变得更大。我们提供了合成人口和家庭接触矩阵的电子版本,供其他研究人员在传染病模型中使用。
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Quantifying age-specific household contacts in Aotearoa New Zealand for infectious disease modelling.

Accounting for population age structure and age-specific contact patterns is crucial for accurate modelling of human infectious disease dynamics and impact. A common approach is to use contact matrices, which estimate the number of contacts between individuals of different ages. These contact matrices are frequently based on data collected from populations with very different demographic and socio-economic characteristics from the population of interest. Here we use a comprehensive household composition dataset based on Aotearoa New Zealand census and administrative data to construct a household contact matrix and a synthetic population that can be used for modelling. We investigate the behaviour of a compartment-based and an agent-based epidemic model parametrized using these data, compared with a commonly used contact matrix that was constructed by projecting international data onto New Zealand's population. We find that using the New Zealand household data, either in a compartment-based model or in an agent-based model, leads to lower attack rates in older age groups compared with using the projected contact matrix. This difference becomes larger when household transmission is more dominant relative to non-household transmission. We provide electronic versions of the synthetic population and household contact matrix for other researchers to use in infectious disease models.

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来源期刊
Royal Society Open Science
Royal Society Open Science Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
508
审稿时长
14 weeks
期刊介绍: Royal Society Open Science is a new open journal publishing high-quality original research across the entire range of science on the basis of objective peer-review. The journal covers the entire range of science and mathematics and will allow the Society to publish all the high-quality work it receives without the usual restrictions on scope, length or impact.
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