Forecasting the costs of battery electric buses: A system dynamics model perspective

The high investment costs of battery electric buses (BEBs), influenced directly by battery and infrastructure costs, pose a challenge that limits their large-scale adoption. Therefore, the success of this socio-technical transition requires economic feasibility analyses to identify the optimum adoption pathway. This study presents a system dynamics model (SDM) covering adoption scenarios from 2023 to 2030. The development of the model was established through interdisciplinary workshops conducted with local researchers from Brazil for collaborative conceptualization and modeling. We provide details of the costs involved, considering purchase, operation, maintenance, and infrastructure costs. Dynamic simulations show the estimated Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for overnight and opportunity charging over the years, allowing a better understanding of the trade-off between large and small batteries for purchasing decisions and selecting charging infrastructure to reduce total costs. Our results indicate potential transport management concerning long-term cost planning associated with various battery sizes and charging strategies.