Assessment and Multiscenario Simulation of Land Use and Ecosystem Services Interactions in Inner Mongolia

Balancing land development and ecological protection poses significant challenges for sustainable development in arid and semi-arid regions like Inner Mongolia. This study uses the integrated valuation of ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs model and patch-generated land-use simulation model to analyze the impacts of land-use/cover (LULC) changes on ESs from 2005 to 2020 and simulate scenarios for 2035. The results show that (1) ecological governance efforts improved the comprehensive ecological index (CEI), habitat quality, and soil conservation capacity but led to a decrease in the annual water yield (AWY) in the eastern region. Additionally, the conversion of grassland and forest land to construction land and farmland caused slight declines in carbon sequestration and increased nitrogen export. (2) The external driving factors of different ESs vary, and the internal relationships within ESs have also changed. Notably, changes in LULC transformed the synergy between AWY and habitat quality into a trade-off relationship after 2010 due to increased forest and grassland. (3) Among the five land-use scenarios, the comprehensive development scenario combined with zonal management strategies can achieve the sustainable development goals of economic growth, ecological protection, and food security. This study clarifies the internal and external factors affecting ESs in Inner Mongolia and provides a scientific basis for future LULC management and ecological governance policies. It fills a gap in the spatiotemporal simulation of ESs under multiple scenarios in this region. These findings offer valuable references for promoting sustainable development in similar arid and semi-arid regions, highlighting the importance of integrating multi-objective strategies and adaptive management practices to balance ecological and economic objectives.