{"title":"根据温度与大气二氧化碳的线性关系估计人类引起的变暖","authors":"Andrew Jarvis, Piers M. Forster","doi":"10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.</p>","PeriodicalId":19053,"journal":{"name":"Nature Geoscience","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":15.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship\",\"authors\":\"Andrew Jarvis, Piers M. Forster\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19053,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nature Geoscience\",\"volume\":\"18 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":15.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nature Geoscience\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Geoscience","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship
Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.
期刊介绍：
Nature Geoscience is a monthly interdisciplinary journal that gathers top-tier research spanning Earth Sciences and related fields.
The journal covers all geoscience disciplines, including fieldwork, modeling, and theoretical studies.
Topics include atmospheric science, biogeochemistry, climate science, geobiology, geochemistry, geoinformatics, remote sensing, geology, geomagnetism, paleomagnetism, geomorphology, geophysics, glaciology, hydrology, limnology, mineralogy, oceanography, paleontology, paleoclimatology, paleoceanography, petrology, planetary science, seismology, space physics, tectonics, and volcanology.
Nature Geoscience upholds its commitment to publishing significant, high-quality Earth Sciences research through fair, rapid, and rigorous peer review, overseen by a team of full-time professional editors.
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