A nomogram model for predicting frailty in middle-aged and elderly patients with colorectal cancer:A cross-sectional study

Purpose

Frailty is a syndrome caused by multiple factors and can lead to serious consequences for middle-aged and elderly patients with colorectal cancer. However, few studies have comprehensively explored predictors of frailty and built predictive models. Therefore, our aim is to develop and evaluate a predictive model for frailty in middle-aged and elderly patients with colorectal cancer.

Methods

From July 2023 to February 2024, a total of 502 middle-aged and elderly patients with colorectal cancer participated in this survey. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation groups in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis were employed to identify potential predictors of frailty in these patients. A nomogram was constructed based on the predictive factors, and the model underwent internal validation.

Results

In the training cohort, logistic regression revealed that self-perceived health, chronic pain, loneliness, depression, and health-promoting lifestyle were independent predictors of frailty. The Areas Under the Curve (AUC) of the training and validation groups were 0.845 and 0.851, respectively. The calibration curve of the nomogram demonstrated good consistency between predicted and actual probabilities. Decision curve analysis revealed good clinical benefit.

Conclusions

This study established a predictive model with satisfactory predictive ability, providing empirical evidence for the early detection and intervention of frailty in middle-aged and elderly patients with colorectal cancer. The nomogram model has significant potential for clinical application, as it can be integrated into routine oncology practice to identify high-risk patients early, allowing for timely and individualized interventions to improve patient outcomes.