Improving theories of change in conservation projects

Theory of change has become a common tool in project design because it helps teams agree on hypothesized causal pathways to a desired goal and examine their underlying assumptions. Yet, a consensus has not emerged on the specific steps and components of a theory of change. What constitutes a theory of change? Using 22 theory of change publications, we did a structured analysis of the components of a theory of change. Where there was substantial agreement among the publications on a specific component of a theory of change, we included it in the first iteration of our approach. We then ordered the components in a logical sequence, developed guidance for each component, tested them with project teams, and revised them in an iterative process. We tested and refined our guidance over 3 years with 73 teams from 18 countries. Here, we share our learning and recommendations for those interested in developing a robust theory of change for a conservation project.