Flowering delay in apple could alleviate frost-induced yield loss under climate change in China

Apple is one of the globally significant perennial fruits, with high consumption driven by the demand for nutritional food diversity and population growth. There is a lack of understanding with respect to the potential consequences of climate change, particularly the impact of spring frost – a frequent agrometeorological disaster on apple yield. Here we used a process-based apple model driven by five climate models to evaluate climate change impacts and the potential adaptation potential in China's apple planting region under climate change. Our study used the process-based STICS model developed by INRAE, France, driven by five global climate models (GCMs; FGOALS–g3, GFDL–ESM4, MPI–ESM1–2–HR, MRI–ESM2–0, and UKESM1–0–LL) to evaluate the impacts of climate change including spring frost on apple yield in China's apple planting region and explore the possible adaptation strategy by increasing thermal time required to complete the phase from budbreak to first flower opening with increments of 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90% in the STICS model at frost-sensitive sites under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) during two periods of 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099). We found the robust performance of the STICS model in simulating phenology and yield of apple across China's apple planting regions. While climate change exerts a slightly positive impact on apple yields with large spatial variation in the staple apple production regions, intensified spring frost under climate change would aggravate apple yield loss. We found that delaying flowering time can increase yield by up to 10% at the frost-sensitive sites. Our results highlight the importance of effective adaptation options to reduce frost-induced apple yield loss under climate change in China's apple planting region.