Land use-driven shifts in shorebird habitat connectivity along the Yellow and Bohai Sea coasts: Dynamics and scenario predictions

Drastic land use change and human activities have seriously degraded the coastal wetland ecosystem in the Yellow and Bohai Sea. In recent years, the Chinese government has implemented a series of measures to protect and restore coastal wetlands ecosystem. However, the effects of this land use change on habitat connectivity and the effects of related policies on future habitat connectivity remain unclear. We selected 39 representative shorebird species in the coastal wetlands of the Yellow and Bohai Sea and evaluated the effects of historical and future land use change on the habitat connectivity. Between 2000 and 2020, 67 % of the 39 shorebird species experienced a significant decline in habitat connectivity. The habitat connectivity is expected to continuously decline for 79 % of the species by 2050 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario but increase for 90 % of the species under the ecological protection (EP) scenario. Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay are becoming increasingly important for maintaining habitat connectivity. The overall delta Probability of Connectivity (delta PC, dPC) of artificial wetlands continues to increase. However, significant differences among shorebird species were observed and the total dPC of natural wetlands was still significantly higher than that of artificial wetlands. Prioritizing the protection and restoration of natural habitats and improving the quality of artificial habitats can effectively mitigate the biodiversity conservation risks posed by environmental change. Our research provides important information with implications for the protection and management of coastal wetland ecosystems.