Social welfare expansion and political support during economic slowdown: A panel data analysis of China, 2010–2018

While economic growth is often emphasized as crucial for developing nations to maintain political support, the impact of social welfare provision in such countries remains unclear. This article investigates how social security spending and economic growth affect political support in China, with a focus on citizens’ evaluations of local government performance. Using a dataset that combines five waves of the China Family Panel Studies surveys with city-level socioeconomic measures from 2010 to 2018, we find that, despite the role of economic growth, social security spending significantly encourages political support. The impact of social security expansion is particularly pronounced during periods of economic slowdown and among its primary beneficiaries—rural residents and non-state-sector workers. Moreover, social security spending enhances political support across both disadvantaged and advantaged groups, while economic growth primarily increases the political support of advantaged groups. These findings suggest that social welfare provision can garner broader popular support, especially during economic downturns. Our study contributes to the literature on non-Western political systems by highlighting the importance of social welfare provision in sustaining regime stability.