北方县域居民碳排放影响因素及减排成本测算——以河北丰宁县为例[j]。

Q2 Environmental Science 环境科学 Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202311098
Jin-Long Ma, Meng-Ying Cao, Bei-Qing Ge
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着经济的发展和城市化步伐的加快,中国城市人口生活水平的提高伴随着家庭碳排放的增加,了解家庭碳排放的特征对于支持绿色能源转型和可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究基于入户调查数据,利用联合国气候变化组织开发的“个人生活方式计算器”,对中国北方典型县河北省丰宁县的城市家庭碳排放进行了分析。应用Lasso回归和随机森林模型(rfm),评估了相关因素对家庭排放的影响。通过技术经济分析,估算了各种减排措施的成本。结果表明,居民家庭碳排放主要与能源使用、交通、购物和餐饮相关,分别占总排放量的33.36%、15.14%、23.81%和27.90%。影响家庭排放水平的因素包括:交通工具、家庭供暖、家用电器效率、家庭规模、电力和天然气消耗量。使用新能源汽车、集中供暖和节能电器可以显著减少碳排放。就不同措施的减排成本而言,选择节能电器和绿色运输是成本最低的选择;建筑节能改造的减排效果最高,而能源替代所需的投资最高。对丰宁的减排潜力进行了评估,并进行了讨论,提出了支持家庭部门减排和促进中国县域低碳绿色生活方式发展的政策建议。
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[Carbon Emission Influencing Factors and Abatement Cost Calculation of Households in Northern Counties: A Case Study of Fengning County, Hebei].

With the economic development and the pace of urbanization, the rising living standard of the urban population has been accompanied with the increase in household carbon emissions in China, and it is of importance to understand the characteristics of the carbon emissions in order to support green energy transitions and sustainable development. Based on the household survey data and using the "Lifestyle calculator-for individuals" developed by the United Nations Climate Change Organization, this study analyzes urban household carbon emissions in Fengning County, Hebei Province, a typical county in North China. We applied the Lasso regression and Random Forest Models (RFMs), assessing the impacts of relevant factors on household emissions. Through techno-economic analysis, we estimated the costs of various emission reduction measures. RThe results revealed that household carbon emissions were mostly related to energy use, transport, shopping, and dining, which accounted for 33.36%, 15.14%, 23.81%, and 27.90% of the total emissions, respectively. The factors affecting the household emission level included: the means of transport, household heating, efficiency of home appliances, household size, and the amount of electricity and natural gas consumed. Using new energy vehicles, centralized heating and energy-efficient appliances could cut carbon emissions significantly. In terms of the costs of emission abatement of different measures, choosing energy-efficient appliances and green transport were among the lowest-cost options; building energy-saving retrofitting could result in the highest reduction, and energy substitution required the highest investment. The emission reduction potential in Fengning was assessed, and discussions were made to draw policy recommendations supporting emission reduction in the household sector and facilitate low-carbon and green lifestyle development in Chinese counties.

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来源期刊
环境科学
环境科学 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15329
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