Prediction and dynamic coupling coordination evaluation of China’s inter-provincial water-energy-food security system

The coordinated development of water, energy, and food (WEF) is crucial to the fate and overall development plan of China in the new era. The aim of this study is to examine the coupling coordination of China’s inter-provincial WEF security system, by using comprehensive development index model, coupling coordination model, the GM (1,1) gray forecast model, and China’s provincial panel data from 2004 to 2021. The results of the study showed that the coupling coordination of China’s inter-provincial WEF security system has significantly improved, adjusting from a near imbalance in 2004 to a good coupling coordination state in 2021. As of 2021, 13 provinces in China have entered a state of good coupling coordination. The forecast results display that the coupling coordination level of China’s WEF security will show a significant upward trend from 2022 to 2030. By 2030, 22 provinces in the country are expected to achieve good coupling coordination or above. And 13 of these countries will achieve a high-quality coupling coordination.