一系列狼数可靠周期最大值的“包络线”周期和太阳活动增减期图像

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI:10.1134/S0016793224700294
I. G. Shibaev, A. I. Shibaev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

振幅较大/较小的太阳活动周期群的存在以及这些周期群的交替表明存在一个具有活动增减期的长周期太阳活动周期。由于SA及其变化对近地空间的气候和人类有重大影响,因此有一个反映这些类群主要特征的肖像(模板)是合理的,从而可以对过去和未来的SA时代进行定性和半定量评估。在研究中,最大/最小期SA的性质由可靠周期10-23的特征决定(14个周期,总周期为153年,考虑了周期振幅与周期的关系)。图案的形成是基于这些周期最大值的“包络线”。讨论了修正道尔顿极小值的可能性,并构造了SA的长期预报。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs

The presence of groups of cycles with larger/smaller amplitudes and alternation of these groups suggests the existence of a long-period solar activity (SA) cycle with epochs of increased/decreased activity. Since SA and its changes significantly influence climate and humans across the near-Earth space, it is reasonable to have a portrait (template) that reflects the main characteristics of these groups, making it possible to qualitatively and semiquantitatively assesses of SA epochs in the past and future. In the study, the properties of epochs SA of maximum/minimum are determined by the characteristics of reliable cycles 10–23 (14 cycles, a total period of 153 years, and the relationship between the amplitude of the cycles and their duration is taken into account). The formation of the pattern is based on the “envelope” of the maxima of these cycles. The possibility of correcting the Dalton minimum is discussed and a long-term forecast of SA is constructed.

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来源期刊
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy Earth and Planetary Sciences-Space and Planetary Science
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
33.30%
发文量
65
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.
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