{"title":"一系列狼数可靠周期最大值的“包络线”周期和太阳活动增减期图像","authors":"I. G. Shibaev, A. I. Shibaev","doi":"10.1134/S0016793224700294","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The presence of groups of cycles with larger/smaller amplitudes and <i>alternation</i> of these groups suggests the existence of a long-period solar activity (SA) cycle with epochs of increased/decreased activity. Since SA and its changes significantly influence climate and humans across the near-Earth space, it is reasonable to have a portrait (template) that reflects the main characteristics of these groups, making it possible to qualitatively and semiquantitatively assesses of SA epochs in the past and future. In the study, the properties of epochs SA of maximum/minimum are determined by the characteristics of reliable cycles 10–23 (14 cycles, a total period of 153 years, and the relationship between the amplitude of the cycles and their duration is taken into account). The formation of the pattern is based on the “envelope” of the maxima of these cycles. The possibility of correcting the Dalton minimum is discussed and a long-term forecast of SA is constructed.</p>","PeriodicalId":55597,"journal":{"name":"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy","volume":"64 7","pages":"1197 - 1201"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs\",\"authors\":\"I. G. Shibaev, A. I. Shibaev\",\"doi\":\"10.1134/S0016793224700294\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The presence of groups of cycles with larger/smaller amplitudes and <i>alternation</i> of these groups suggests the existence of a long-period solar activity (SA) cycle with epochs of increased/decreased activity. Since SA and its changes significantly influence climate and humans across the near-Earth space, it is reasonable to have a portrait (template) that reflects the main characteristics of these groups, making it possible to qualitatively and semiquantitatively assesses of SA epochs in the past and future. In the study, the properties of epochs SA of maximum/minimum are determined by the characteristics of reliable cycles 10–23 (14 cycles, a total period of 153 years, and the relationship between the amplitude of the cycles and their duration is taken into account). The formation of the pattern is based on the “envelope” of the maxima of these cycles. The possibility of correcting the Dalton minimum is discussed and a long-term forecast of SA is constructed.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":55597,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy\",\"volume\":\"64 7\",\"pages\":\"1197 - 1201\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0016793224700294\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geomagnetism and Aeronomy","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0016793224700294","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs
The presence of groups of cycles with larger/smaller amplitudes and alternation of these groups suggests the existence of a long-period solar activity (SA) cycle with epochs of increased/decreased activity. Since SA and its changes significantly influence climate and humans across the near-Earth space, it is reasonable to have a portrait (template) that reflects the main characteristics of these groups, making it possible to qualitatively and semiquantitatively assesses of SA epochs in the past and future. In the study, the properties of epochs SA of maximum/minimum are determined by the characteristics of reliable cycles 10–23 (14 cycles, a total period of 153 years, and the relationship between the amplitude of the cycles and their duration is taken into account). The formation of the pattern is based on the “envelope” of the maxima of these cycles. The possibility of correcting the Dalton minimum is discussed and a long-term forecast of SA is constructed.
期刊介绍:
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy is a bimonthly periodical that covers the fields of interplanetary space; geoeffective solar events; the magnetosphere; the ionosphere; the upper and middle atmosphere; the action of solar variability and activity on atmospheric parameters and climate; the main magnetic field and its secular variations, excursion, and inversion; and other related topics.