Measuring Unmet Demand for Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment: The Application of an Australian Population-Based Planning Model.

Objective: The estimation of demand for treatment is one of the important elements in planning for alcohol and other drug treatment services. This article reports on a demand-projection model used in Australia to estimate the extent of unmet treatment demand by drug type.

Method: The model incorporated the prevalence of substance use disorders (by drug type and age), with the application of a severity distribution, which distributed the substance abuse disorders into three disability categories: mild, moderate, and severe. The application of treatment rates derived from expert judgments reflecting the proportion of people within disability categories who would be suitable for, likely to seek, and benefit from treatment. Sensitivity analyses incorporating variations to the severity distributions and treatment rates were applied, along with adjustment for polydrug use.

Results: The estimate for treatment demand for Australia varied between a low of 411,740 people and a high of 755,557 people. The most sensitive parameter is the expected treatment-seeking rate. Given that approximately 200,000 to 230,000 people are currently in treatment, this represents a met demand of between 26.8% and 56.4%.

Conclusions: There is insufficient alcohol and drug treatment available to meet the demand in Australia, despite Australia's relatively high met demand, when compared with other countries.