{"title":"走向季节性无冰北冰洋的轨迹。","authors":"Dirk Notz, Julienne Stroeve","doi":"10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose of review: </strong>The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.</p><p><strong>Recent findings: </strong>The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 <sup>∘</sup>C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO<sub>2</sub> emissions must remain below 500 Gt.</p><p><strong>Summary: </strong>The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced.</p>","PeriodicalId":54235,"journal":{"name":"Current climate change reports","volume":"4 4","pages":"407-416"},"PeriodicalIF":9.3000,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2","citationCount":"69","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean.\",\"authors\":\"Dirk Notz, Julienne Stroeve\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Purpose of review: </strong>The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.</p><p><strong>Recent findings: </strong>The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 <sup>∘</sup>C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO<sub>2</sub> emissions must remain below 500 Gt.</p><p><strong>Summary: </strong>The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54235,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Current climate change reports\",\"volume\":\"4 4\",\"pages\":\"407-416\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":9.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2\",\"citationCount\":\"69\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Current climate change reports\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2018/9/26 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Current climate change reports","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2018/9/26 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean.
Purpose of review: The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.
Recent findings: The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ∘C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt.
Summary: The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced.
期刊介绍：
Current Climate Change Reports is dedicated to exploring the most recent research and policy issues in the dynamically evolving field of Climate Change. The journal covers a broad spectrum of topics, encompassing Ecological Impacts, Advances in Modeling, Sea Level Projections, Extreme Events, Climate Feedback and Sensitivity, Hydrologic Impact, Effects on Human Health, and Economics and Policy Issues. Expert contributors provide reviews on the latest research, assess the effectiveness of available options, and engage in discussions about special considerations. All articles undergo a thorough peer-review process by specialists in the field to ensure accuracy and objectivity.
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