A mathematical model for radiation-induced life-shortening attributed to cancer.

Purpose: In this paper, we described our mathematical model for radiation-induced life shortening in detail and applied the model to the experimental data on mice to investigate the effect of radiation on cancer-related life-shortening.

Materials and methods: Our mathematical model incorporates the following components: (i) occurrence of cancer, (ii) progression of cancer over time, and (iii) death from cancer. We evaluated the progression of cancer over time by analyzing the cancer incidence data and cumulative mortalities data obtained from mice experiments conducted at the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IES).

Results: We analyzed non-irradiated control and 20 mGy/day × 400 days irradiated groups. In the analysis, all malignant neoplasms were lumped together and referred to as 'cancer'. Our analysis showed that the reduction in lifespan (104 days in median) was the result of the early onset of cancer (68 days in median) and the shortening of the cancer progression period (48 days in median).

Conclusions: We described in detail our mathematical model for radiation-induced life-shortening attributed to cancer. We analyzed the mice data obtained from the experiment conducted at the IES using our model. We decomposed radiation-induced life-shortening into the early onset of cancer and the shortening of the cancer progression period.