CO2 emissions reduction Performance of China's HSR based on substitution effect and demand effect

As an important transportation infrastructure and transportation backbone in China, high-speed rail (HSR) plays a critical role in promoting the development of green and low-carbon transportation. Calculating the CO2 emissions reduction performance of HSR will be conducive to promote the CO2 emissions reduction work of the railway. Based on the Dalkic HSR CO2 emissions reduction performance model, by adjusting HSR CO2 emission factor (CEFHSR), annual times of departures (T) and other parameters, this study develops China HSR CO2 emissions reduction performance model. Taking the Beijing-Shanghai HSR as the research object, this study conducts a questionnaire survey to explore the substitution effect and demand effect of HSR on different transportation modes, collects data such as passenger volume, average electricity use, and annual times of departures of Beijing-Shanghai HSR in 2019, and calculates the CO2 emissions reduction performance of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR. This study has two main results: (1) Build China HSR CO2 emissions reduction performance model based on substitution effect and demand effect. (2) In 2019, the CO2 emissions of Beijing-Shanghai HSR is 2898 233.62t, the CO2 emissions reduction performance of Beijing-Shanghai HSR is 17 999 482.8t, the annual CO2 emissions of Beijing-Shanghai line in ‘No HSR’ case is as 7.2 times as in " HSR" case, and PKT of HSR is 10.2 g/pkm. Based on the research results, this study proposes three CO2 emissions reduction policy suggestions. This study would be helpful for further HSR CO2 emissions reduction research and departments related to railway transportation management to make CO2 emissions reduction policies.