Learning About the Incidence and Lethality of COVID-19 in Vulnerable Neighborhoods: The Case of Malaga (Spain)

This research delves into the need to use granular analyses at the neighborhood level to study the preexisting conditions of vulnerability that best explain the waves of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. It seems most appropriate to use the comprehensive approach of the sustainable development with variables that analyze the economic, social, environmental, and governance dimensions, given the extensive literature that identifies each as a determining factor for the impact of disease. The work utilizes a composite vulnerability index that allows the city of Malaga to be divided into 434 census sections; waves of incidence and mortality for each section are constructed for the period of March 2020 to March 2021. Cluster analysis reveals that there are five different cluster incidence patterns, whereas the lethality waves are found to behave as a hot-spot phenomenon. The results reveal that neighborhoods that are the most vulnerable in terms of their demographic conditions (large proportion over 65 years of age and dependent) and socioeconomic conditions (severe material deprivation), have been the most affected by COVID-19 infection and mortality.