Crop mix portfolio response to climate risks: evidence from smallholder farmers in Kisumu County, Kenya

ABSTRACT Farm households respond to market uncertainties and household demand for food commodities by diversifying their farm-level crop portfolio. However, it is unclear if farmers’ crop mix also responds to unpredictable climate variability. We use primary data from 267 randomly selected respondents and apply a multinomial logit model to test the hypothesis that crop portfolio choice is an ex-ante mechanism to manage climate risks in the absence of crop insurance. The results suggest that access to information on climate variability does influence the mix of maize, cassava, sweet potato, and sorghum, which smallholder farmers in Kisumu County, Kenya grow in various combinations. Access to credit services, farm size, gender of household head, farming experience, and distance to nearest market also influence the farm-level crop mixture. These findings imply that policies geared towards incentivizing a better crop choice portfolio at the smallholder farm level should address climate variability awareness. In addition, encouraging crop-variety mixes that are tolerant to climate risks would enhance resilience in food systems among these smallholder farmers.