Simplified calculation of airblast variability and reliability-based design load factors for spherical air burst and hemispherical surface burst explosions

There can be significant uncertainty and variability with explosive blast loading. Standards and codes of practice are underpinned by reliability-based principles, and there is little reason not to apply these to explosive blast loading. This paper develops a simplified approach where regression equations may be used to predict the probabilistic model of airblast variability and associated reliability-based design load factors (or RBDFs) for all combinations of range, explosive mass and model errors. These models are applicable to (i) hemispherical surface bursts, and (ii) spherical free-air bursts. The benefit of this simplified approach is that the equations can be easily programed into a spreadsheet, computer code or other numerical methods. There is no need for any Monte-Carlo or other probabilistic calculations. Examples then illustrate how model error, range and explosive mass uncertainty and variability affect the variability of pressure and impulse, which in turn affect the damage assessment of residential construction.