Influencing factors and contribution analysis of CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, China

Within the context of CO₂ emission peaking and carbon neutrality, the study of CO₂ emissions at the provincial level is few. Sichuan Province in China has not only superior clean energy resources endowment but also great potential for the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Therefore, using logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to analysis the influence degree of different influencing factors on CO₂ emissions from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, so as to formulate corresponding emission reduction countermeasures from different paths according to the influencing factors. Based on the data of final energy consumption in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2019, we calculated CO₂ emission by the indirect emission calculation method. The influencing factors of CO₂ emissions originating from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province were decomposed into population size, economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, and energy consumption structure by the Kaya–logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model. At the same time, grey correlation analysis was used to identify the correlation between CO₂ emissions originating from final energy consumption and the influencing factors in Sichuan Province. The results showed that population size, economic development and energy consumption structure have positive contributions to CO₂ emissions from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, and economic development has a significant contribution to CO₂ emissions from final energy consumption, with a contribution rate of 519.11%. The industrial structure and energy consumption intensity have negative contributions to CO₂ emissions in Sichuan Province, and both of them have significant contributions, among which the contribution rate of energy consumption structure was 325.96%. From the perspective of industrial structure, secondary industry makes significant contributions and will maintain a restraining effect; from the perspective of energy consumption structure, industry sector has a significant contribution. The results of this paper are conducive to the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies in Sichuan Province.