2015-2019年全球五个系统对热带气旋强度预报的评价

IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 热带气象学报 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.46267/J.1006-8775.2021.020
Xin Jia-jie, Yu Hui, Chen Pei-yan
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究对2015-2019年期间北太平洋西部五个全球集合预测系统的热带气旋强度预测进行了评估。值得注意的误差特征包括集合平均预报低估TC强度和概率预报的分散性不足。总体平均值(概率预测)的均方根误差(brier分数)通常在五年内的长交付周期内连续下降,但在短交付周期内在某些值之间波动。与气候学预测相比,最近两年(2018-2019年)出现了120小时或更晚的积极预测技巧。然而,5年期间的强度变化预测没有明显改善,强度突变仍然是一个巨大的挑战。概率预测显示,在所有交付周期内,强大的TC都没有技巧。根据系综均值和离散度的评估,在五个EPSs中,ECMWF-EPS的强度预测效果最好,而NCEPGFS的强度变化预测效果最好。至于其他概率预测评估,ECMWF-EPS在提前期短于72小时时排名最好,而NCEP-GEFS在随后的时间内排名最好。
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Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts from Five Global EnsemblePrediction Systems During 2015-2019
This study presented an evaluation of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts from five global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) during 2015-2019 in the western North Pacific region. Notable error features include the underestimation of the TC intensity by ensemble mean forecast and the under-dispersion of the probability forecasts.The root mean square errors (brier scores) of the ensemble mean(probability forecasts) generally decrease consecutively at long lead times during the five years, but fluctuate between certain values at short lead times.Positive forecast skill appeared in the most recent two years (2018-2019) at 120 h or later as compared with the climatology forecasts. However, there is no obvious improvement for the intensity change forecasts during the 5-year period, with abrupt intensity change remaining a big challenge. The probability forecasts show no skill for strong TCs at all the lead times. Among the five EPSs, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best for the intensity forecast, while NCEPGEFS ranks the best for the intensity change forecast, according to the evaluation of ensemble mean and dispersion.As for the other probability forecast evaluation, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best at lead times shorter than 72 h, while NCEP-GEFS ranks the best later on.
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来源期刊
热带气象学报
热带气象学报 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
8.30%
发文量
2793
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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