解决新冠疫情后印度封锁的经济后果

V. Joshi, V. Lakshmi, M. Suganthi, P. Guru
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摘要

由于国家关门,经济严重衰退。商品和服务购买量的减少导致国内制造业和农业部门的放缓,导致城市工业区的严重失业和农村经济的收缩。像其他国家一样,这次封锁影响了印度的经济和商业环境。2019冠状病毒病疫情导致的持续封锁在许多方面影响着印度经济,包括国内需求急剧下降、旅游和商务旅行减少、贸易和生产联系、供应中断以及健康影响。由于冠状病毒的爆发,某些部门受到了影响。本研究报告预测了可能采取的指示性措施,以在一定程度上重振经济以及受影响的行业。首先,本文概述了这次封锁对印度经济的影响。由于没有制造业活动,国内生产总值(GDP)的增长很可能会放缓。随后将列出受2019冠状病毒病影响的行业,这可能会导致全球供应链中断。这包括严重依赖中国的五种进口产品——电机、机械设备、有机化学品、塑料和手术器械——占印度进口产品篮子的28%左右,可能受到这种潜在关闭的影响最大。接下来,本文将提出一些振兴经济和振兴受影响行业的指示性措施。必须对工作场所工人的保护给予最优先的重视,其次是适应新的工作安排,如在家工作。其次,制定和实施积极的财政政策,刺激经济增长,扩大劳动力需求。增加购买国内商品和服务的支出将是推动经济发展的最佳方式。事实上,现在可能需要评估这里(印度)能生产什么,并慎重考虑是否要种植。此外,印度拥有国内成熟的“制药行业”,将处于优势地位。该部门可能会成为该国经济增长的“催化剂部门”。©2021卡拉德尼兹技术大学。版权所有。
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Addressing the post Covid-19 economic consequences of lockdown in India
On account of the national closedown, the economy has suffered a severe slump. The reduced purchase of goods and services has lead to slow down of domestic manufacturing and agricultural sectors, leading to severe unemployment in urban industrial areas and contraction of the rural economy. This lockdown has influenced economy and business circumstance in India as it has occurred in other nations. The ongoing lockdown due to COVID-19 outbreak affects the Indian economy in many ways, including sharp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects. There are certain sectors that have been affected due to the outbreak of corona virus. This research paper, anticipates indicative measures that may be taken to revive the economy as well as affected sectors to some extent. First, this paper provides an overview of effect of this lockdown on Indian economy. With no manufacturing activity, it is likely that growth of gross domestic product (GDP) will be slowed down. This will be followed listing of the sectors affected due to COVID-19, which carries the risk of global supply chain disruptions. This includes five import items that are heavily dependent on China - electrical machinery, mechanical appliances, organic chemicals, plastics and surgical instruments – that make up about 28% of India’s import basket could be the mostly affected ones due to this potential shutdown. Next, the paper will present some of the indicative measures to revive the economy and rejuvenate the affected sectors. Protection of workers at the workplace must be given utmost priority followed by adapting to new work arrangements such as work-from-home (WFH). This will be followed by measures to stimulate the economy and labour demand by making and implementing active fiscal policy. Making expenditure on purchasing domestic goods and services will be the best way to push the economy. As a matter of fact, it is now may be required to evaluate on what can be produced here (in India) and give a deliberate thought to it towards implanting the same. Further, India will be at advantage by having domestically based and well established ‘pharma industry’. This sector may act as ‘catalyst sector’ towards economic growth of the country. © 2021 Karadeniz Technical University. All rights reserved.
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