The effect of expectations on the Brazilian Central Bank’s policy rate

Abstract This article investigates how expectations influence the determination of the Brazilian benchmark interest rate based on Keynes’ views on the relationship between expectations and monetary policy. Then, as empirical methodology, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration are used to study, in the short and long-run, the connection between expectations and central bank interest rate. For the period from 2001Q3 to 2017Q4, results show that in the long-run business and consumer confidence, as well as expectations related to market interest rates, GDP, inflation and exchange rate play an important role on monetary policy actions. In the short-run, business and consumer confidence lose importance, while the other mentioned expectations are still statistically significant. The findings of the paper lend credence to Keynes’s view on the relation between expectation and money policy in Brazil.