加拿大省际移民下降的人口统计学决定因素:分解分析

IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Migration Studies Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI:10.1093/MIGRATION/MNAB020
Nathaniel H. White, Michael Haan
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文研究了观察到的人口变化与加拿大省际移民下降之间的联系。随着年龄构成、受教育程度、婚姻趋势和移民的变化,加拿大国内移民人数普遍下降。在此背景下,我们的项目调查了加拿大省级移民的人口决定因素,以及加拿大社会人口变化与省际移民下降之间的相关性。为此,我们的分析包括两个相同的多变量逻辑回归和计量经济学分解,使用1991年和2016年加拿大人口普查公共使用微数据文件的数据。因变量为省际迁移,重点自变量为年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况、移民身份、5年前居住省份。通过调查这些决定因素如何与移民相关联,我们更深入地了解了人口统计数据如何预测加拿大的省际移民,以及这些人口统计数据如何改变并影响了省际移民的总体下降。从广义上讲,我们研究了当代人口趋势与加拿大宏观经济人力资本分配关系的连续性。通过我们的调查,我们得出结论,虽然构成变化有一些影响,但这些变化的影响在很大程度上解释了加拿大省际移民的下降。
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The demographic determinants of inter-provincial migration declines in Canada: A decomposition analysis
This article studies the link between observed demographic changes and Canadian inter-provincial migration declines. Alongside recent changes in age composition, educational attainment, marital trends, and immigration, Canadian internal migration has widely been in decline. In this context, our project investigates the demographic determinants of Canadian provincial migration and the correlation between Canada’s socio-demographic shifts and the decline of inter-provincial migration. To do so, our analysis consists of two identical multivariate logistic regressions and an econometric decomposition using the data of the 1991 and 2016 Canadian Census Public Use Microdata Files. The dependent variable is inter-provincial migration, and the focal independent variables are age, educational attainment, marital status, immigrant status, and province of residence five years ago. By investigating how these determinants are associated with migration, we develop a greater understanding of how demographics predict inter-provincial migration in Canada, and how these demographics have changed and affected the overall decline in inter-provincial migration. In a broad sense, we examine the continuity of contemporary demographic trends in their relation to Canadian macro-economic human capital distribution. Through our investigation, we conclude that while compositional changes have some impact, it is a shift in the effects of these changes that largely explains the decline in Canadian inter-provincial migration.
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来源期刊
Migration Studies
Migration Studies DEMOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
5.30%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Migration shapes human society and inspires ground-breaking research efforts across many different academic disciplines and policy areas. Migration Studies contributes to the consolidation of this field of scholarship, developing the core concepts that link different disciplinary perspectives on migration. To this end, the journal welcomes full-length articles, research notes, and reviews of books, films and other media from those working across the social sciences in all parts of the world. Priority is given to methodological, comparative and theoretical advances. The journal also publishes occasional special issues.
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