疫苗接种在控制传染病爆发中的作用:数学方法

Mahmood Parsamanesh
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摘要

引言:传染病威胁公众健康;因此,了解它们的传播机制可能有助于控制它们。数学模型是帮助科学家了解病原体繁殖的工具,并为未来控制病原体提供策略。方法:利用数学定理和MATLAB软件,描述了一个被称为易感-感染-易感(SIS)的群体感染传播的连续时间模型,并研究了基于该框架的疫苗接种计划的效果。结果:该模型具有两个平衡点:无感染平衡点和感染平衡点。得到了一个关于模型参数的特定阈值,然后说明了系统平衡点的存在性和关于该阈值的渐近稳定性。通过多次模拟,对理论结果进行了数值验证。结论:研究结果表明了该模型的稳定性,该模型强调了限制移民、减少易感者与感染者之间的有害接触、提高人们的意识水平以及最重要的疫苗接种等参数将减少基本繁殖数量,有助于控制疾病。此外,还获得了计算新来者和易感个体接种疫苗的最低剂量的关系式。
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The role of vaccination in controlling the outbreak of infectious diseases: a mathematical approach
Introduction: Infectious diseases threaten the public health; hence understanding their propagation mechanisms may help to control them. Mathematical models are tools that can help the scientists to understand the pathogens’ propagations and can provide strategies for their control in future. Methods: Using mathematical theorems and MATLAB software, a continuous-time model known as susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) for transmission of infection in a population was described and the effects of a vaccination program based on this framework was investigated. Results: It was shown that the model had two equilibria: the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium. A specific threshold in terms of model parameters was obtained and then the existence of the equilibria and asymptotic stability of the system were stated with respect to this threshold. The theoretical results were also verified numerically by providing several simulations. Conclusion: The results indicated the stability of this model which emphasized that parameters such as restricting the immigration, reducing harmful contacts between the susceptible and the infected individuals, increasing awareness level of people, and most-importantly vaccination will reduce the basic reproduction number and help to control the disease. Moreover, a relation to calculate the minimum doses for vaccinating of the new-comers and the susceptible individuals, was obtained.
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