Volta Redonda宏观区域的降雨数据调整

Hugo Thaner dos Santos, Sergio Nascimento Duarte
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大多数巴西城市都没有适当的水土管理系统,因为缺乏该部门的规划,也缺乏能够加强未来水文建模创建的易于咨询的当地水文参考书目。Volta Redonda宏观区域的情况可以添加到这一统计数据中,因为它说明了一些特定地区与洪水和洪水有关的一些自然灾害。本研究的目的是描述性地分析CEMADEN雨量仪生成的月降雨量数据,并评估该地区的月降雨量是否能很好地适应概率伽马分布图。研究中使用了CEMADEN提供的Volta Redonda、Barra Mansa和Pinheiral城市四个点的降雨量数据,这些数据记录了48个月。伽马分布根据月度降雨量数据进行了调整。总之,给定的月降雨量低于或等于皮涅拉尔-沃尔塔-雷东达-巴拉-曼萨大都市地区记录的月降雨量的概率可以通过伽马分布进行估计。Volta Redonda宏观区域市政当局的形状(γ)和尺度(β)参数记录值平均分别为1.59和79.30。
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Rainfall data adjustment to Volta Redonda macro-region
Most Brazilian cities do not have a proper water and soil management system due to lack of planning in this sector and of an easy-consultation local-hydrological bibliography capable of reinforcing the future creation of a hydrological modeling. Volta Redonda macro-region's case can be added to this statistics, since it accounts for several natural hazards linked to floods and inundations in some specific locations. The aims of the present study are to descriptively analyze monthly rainfall data generated by CEMADEN's rainfall gauges and to assess whether monthly rainfall in the region adapts well to probability Gamma Distribution plots. Rainfall data from four points in Volta Redonda, Barra Mansa and Pinheiral cities, recorded for 48 months, and provided by CEMADEN, were used in the study. Gamma Distribution was adjusted to monthly rainfall data. In conclusion, the probability of having a given monthly rainfall value lower than, or equal to, that recorded for the Pinheiral – Volta Redonda – Barra Mansa conurbation area can be estimated through Gamma Distribution. Values recorded for shape (γ) and scale (β) parameters of Volta Redonda macro-region's municipalities were 1.59 and 79.30, on average, respectively.
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7 weeks
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