俄罗斯天然气工业投资项目的经济效益分析——以出口天然气管道为例

M. Chernyaev, Aleksandra A. Boiko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国内和出口天然气供应的效率在很大程度上决定了俄罗斯经济的可持续发展和国家安全。当前,在制裁限制和全球能源市场不确定性增加的背景下,天然气行业投资项目经济效益的理论和实践方面具有根本性的重要性,需要进一步发展。本文以天然气工业投资项目为例,论述了“经济效益”范畴的理论基础及其评价方法。根据作者指定的标准,对确定资本投资经济效率的标准方法和评价计划经济和市场经济中投资项目有效性的方法建议进行了比较分析。对已发表的关于评估石油和天然气部门投资项目经济效率方法的研究进行了审查。本文认为,评估投资效率的主要方法是现金流折现法,俄罗斯作者的论文也提出了一些替代方法。审议了俄罗斯天然气工业的两个大型项目,审查了已发表的关于效率评价的研究报告,重点是审议中项目的执行所产生的外部影响。根据研究结果,指出了每个天然气输送项目实施条件的独特性,非经济因素对项目实施影响的根本重要性,以及制定投资项目经济效益评估方法的必要性,并适当考虑了不确定性和风险影响。
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Economic efficiency of gas industry investment projects in Russia on the example of export gas pipelines
The efficiency of domestic and export supplies of natural gas largely determines the sustainable development of the Russian economy and national security. At present, in the context of sanction restrictions and increasing uncertainty in the global energy market, the theoretical and practical aspects of the economic efficiency of investment projects in the gas industry are of fundamental importance and require further development. The article discusses the theoretical foundations of the category “economic efficiency” and methodological approaches to its assessment on the example of investment projects in the gas industry. A comparative analysis of the standard methodology for determining economic efficiency of capital investments and the methodological recommendations for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects in the planned and market economics has been performed based on the criteria specified by the authors. A review of published studies on methods for assessing economic efficiency of investment projects in the oil and gas sector has been performed. It is concluded that to assess the efficiency of investments is proposed to use the discounted cash flow method as the main approach, as well as the alternative methods in the papers of Russian authors. Two large-scale projects of the Russian gas industry have been considered, a review of published studies on the efficiency assessment has been performed with emphasis on the external effects due to implementation of the projects under consideration. According to the study results, the uniqueness of the implementation conditions of each gas transportation project, fundamental importance of the influence of non-economic factors on the project implementation and the need to develop assessment methods for the economic efficiency of investment projects were noted with due regard to the uncertainty and risk impact.
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