{"title":"经济不确定性、央行数字货币和负利率政策","authors":"Baogui Xin, Kai Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmse.2023.04.001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). How does uncertainty affect economic activity, and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency (CBDC)? To answer the two questions, we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that accommodates sticky prices and wages. The results indicated: (i) Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment, output, wage, and loans, which increases unemployment risk. In the short term, it has triggered impulsive consumption by households, while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run. (ii) After suffering an uncertainty shock, the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation. The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment, and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk. (iii) CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP. Compared with traditional currency, CBDC-based NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock, which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36172,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Management Science and Engineering","volume":"8 4","pages":"Pages 430-452"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Economic uncertainty, central bank digital currency, and negative interest rate policy\",\"authors\":\"Baogui Xin, Kai Jiang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jmse.2023.04.001\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). How does uncertainty affect economic activity, and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency (CBDC)? To answer the two questions, we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that accommodates sticky prices and wages. The results indicated: (i) Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment, output, wage, and loans, which increases unemployment risk. In the short term, it has triggered impulsive consumption by households, while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run. (ii) After suffering an uncertainty shock, the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation. The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment, and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk. (iii) CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP. Compared with traditional currency, CBDC-based NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock, which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":36172,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Management Science and Engineering\",\"volume\":\"8 4\",\"pages\":\"Pages 430-452\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Management Science and Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096232023000422\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Management Science and Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096232023000422","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic uncertainty, central bank digital currency, and negative interest rate policy
The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). How does uncertainty affect economic activity, and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency (CBDC)? To answer the two questions, we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that accommodates sticky prices and wages. The results indicated: (i) Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment, output, wage, and loans, which increases unemployment risk. In the short term, it has triggered impulsive consumption by households, while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run. (ii) After suffering an uncertainty shock, the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation. The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment, and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk. (iii) CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP. Compared with traditional currency, CBDC-based NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock, which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Engineering and Applied Science (JEAS) is the official journal of the Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University (CUFE), Egypt, established in 1816.
The Journal of Engineering and Applied Science publishes fundamental and applied research articles and reviews spanning different areas of engineering disciplines, applications, and interdisciplinary topics.