经济不确定性、央行数字货币和负利率政策

IF 5.4 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Journal of Management Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI:10.1016/j.jmse.2023.04.001
Baogui Xin, Kai Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

新冠肺炎疫情引发了社会对经济不确定性和负利率政策的空前关注。不确定性如何影响经济活动,以及基于央行数字货币(CBDC)的NIRP的有效性如何?为了回答这两个问题,我们构建了一个动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,该模型包含粘性价格和工资。结果表明:(1)经济不确定性导致投资、产出、工资和贷款大幅减少,增加了失业风险。从短期来看,它引发了家庭的冲动消费,而从长期来看,消费却陷入了低迷。(二)在遭受不确定性冲击之后,经济进入了短期滞胀和长期通缩。短期滞胀主要由居民工资调整引起,长期通缩主要由失业风险导致有效需求下降引起。(iii) CBDC可以消除零下限(ZLB)约束,从而提高NIRP的有效性。与传统货币相比,基于cbdc的NIRP可以更有效地平滑宏观经济波动,缓解不确定性冲击的负面影响,更有利于恢复市场信心,促进经济复苏。
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Economic uncertainty, central bank digital currency, and negative interest rate policy

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). How does uncertainty affect economic activity, and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency (CBDC)? To answer the two questions, we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that accommodates sticky prices and wages. The results indicated: (i) Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment, output, wage, and loans, which increases unemployment risk. In the short term, it has triggered impulsive consumption by households, while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run. (ii) After suffering an uncertainty shock, the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation. The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment, and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk. (iii) CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP. Compared with traditional currency, CBDC-based NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock, which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.

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来源期刊
Journal of Management Science and Engineering
Journal of Management Science and Engineering Engineering-Engineering (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
3.00%
发文量
37
审稿时长
108 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Engineering and Applied Science (JEAS) is the official journal of the Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University (CUFE), Egypt, established in 1816. The Journal of Engineering and Applied Science publishes fundamental and applied research articles and reviews spanning different areas of engineering disciplines, applications, and interdisciplinary topics.
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