人口预测中简单年龄的计算

R. Neupert
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究描述了一种按5岁年龄组估计或预测的单一年龄人口的插值方法。该方法的最小粗糙度消除了伪变化问题,这是一个相当常见的问题,在插值使用乘法器。这些波动是按简单年龄分布的波动,是由内插方法中包含的数学运算造成的,而不是由人口动态造成的。尽管这种方法能够避免这个问题,但它本身的优点是方便的,它代表了在按单一年龄分类年龄组时使用乘数的一种有利的替代办法。
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The calculation of simple ages in population projections
This study describes a method of interpolation to disaggregate into single ages populations estimated or projected by five-year age groups. The method minimum roughness obviates the problem of spurious variations, which is a rather frequent problem in interpolations using multipliers. These are fluctuations that appear in the distribution by simple ages resulting from mathematical operations included in the method of interpolation and not from the demographic dynamics. Irrespective of its ability to avoid this problem, the method is convenient by its own merit, and represents an advantageous alternative to the use of multipliers in the disaggregation of age groups by single ages.
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来源期刊
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0.00%
发文量
19
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊最新文献
El abordaje comunitario para la vinculación social mediante la extensión universitaria en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la Universidad Nacional de Asunción. Periodo 2017 -2021 Método para estimar proyecciones de población en la zona metropolitana del valle de México. Años 2010-2020-2050 Actividades de extensión universitaria desde la perspectiva de los estudiantes de la Universidad del Norte de las sedes central, Itauguá y Caacupé, Paraguay. Año 2022 Segmentación del mercado de trabajo del arte y la cultura en Argentina 2016-2019 Tendencias del mercado de sillas de ruedas para personas con discapacidad en Paraguay: año 2022
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