预测乌克兰经济发展方面政府措施的有效性

O. Klimenko, M. Mashchenko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

持续的新冠肺炎大流行和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰给乌克兰造成了严重而深刻的危机和巨大的物质破坏。国家、经济和整个社会经济制度的恢复决定了迫切需要提供预测指标,以确定最快的结果。本文的目的是基于曼德尔-弗莱明模型预测乌克兰经济发展的政府经济政策的有效性。本文运用了分析综合法和系统法、经济建模法、经济预测法、数学与向量分析法、图解法,以及曼德尔-弗莱明短期开放经济学宏观经济模型的主要规定。本文针对乌克兰在战争造成的深刻社会经济危机后的经济发展,提出在使用曼德拉-弗莱明模型乘数的情况下,预测实际政府措施的有效性。在预测应用中,提出了显示具体货币和财政政策措施有效性的连锁方案。根据乌克兰经济复苏和经济发展的汇率制度,根据曼德尔-弗莱明模型,考虑到正或负乘法系数,提出了预测政府货币和财政政策措施实施有效性的方法。该研究具有一定的应用价值,可为政府制定经济政策提供参考
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Forecasting effectiveness of government measures regarding the economic development of Ukraine
The protracted COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have caused a severe and deep crisis in Ukraine and colossal physical destruction. The restoration of the country, its economy and the entire socio-economic system determines the urgency of providing predictive indicators to identify the fastest results. The purpose of the article was to forecast the effectiveness of the government's economic policy based on the Mandel-Fleming model for the development of Ukraine's economy. The article used the method of analysis and synthesis and the system approach, the method of economic modeling, economic forecasting, the method of mathematical and vector analysis, the graphic method, as well as the main provisions of the Mandel-Fleming macroeconomic model for open economics in the short term. The article proposes to forecast the effectiveness of real government measures under the condition of using multipliers of the Mandela-Fleming model for Ukraine’s economic development after the deep socio-economic crisis caused by the war. In predict applied, chain schemes are presented that show the effectiveness of specific monetary and fiscal policy measures. It was proposed approach of forecasting the effectiveness of implementing the government’s monetary and fiscal policy measures, taking into account positive or negative multiplicative coefficients according to the Mandel-Fleming model, depending on the exchange rate regime for the recovery of the economy and economic development of Ukraine. The research has an applied aspect and is suitable for use in decision-making by the government regarding the implemented economic policy
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审稿时长
7 weeks
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