Fish price volatility dynamics in Bangladesh

Abstract Price volatility is an important factor in the fish value chain influencing the costs, trade, income, and food security. Therefore, analysis of fish price volatility dynamics can provide valuable insights into the impact of aquaculture growth in Bangladesh, a developing country where much of the animal source protein is obtained through fish consumption. In this article, we use both descriptive analysis and time-series econometric modeling to understand the price volatility dynamics of four major aquaculture products at retail level, as well as the efficiency of the markets to adjust to price shocks. We analyze publicly available retail fish prices observations from January 2007 to December 2019. This period is characterized by a rapid growth in aquaculture output as the inland aquaculture sector of Bangladesh shifted away from largely low-intensity farming toward commercialization. Our results indicate Bangladesh is experiencing lower fish price volatility during recent years. Therefore, we argue that rapid growth in aquaculture output in Bangladesh has contributed to lower volatility of fish prices. The article also sheds light on the volatility persistence and finds almost all the markets are inefficiently adjusting to price shock, indicating that there is more room for improving the functioning of fish markets in Bangladesh.