External and Domestic Drivers of Nuclear Trilemma in Southern Asia: China, India, and Pakistan

ABSTRACT This paper discusses both the external and domestic drivers of the nuclear trilemma in Southern Asia that involves China, India and Pakistan. It seeks to untangle the complexity of the dyad and the triangular nature of the relationships between the three countries and highlights major differences as well as similarities in the nuclear dynamics. It identifies and examines the internal dynamics of the China–India and India–Pakistan conflicts and explores how domestic drivers such as nationalism, public opinions, and civil–military relations either mitigate or exacerbate nuclear risks in a region marked by perennial disputes, emerging rivalry, and long-standing extra-regional interferences. Against these backgrounds, the paper addresses the central theme of the nuclear trilemma between China, India, and Pakistan by looking at causes of instability, risks of conflicts and escalation to nuclear use, and prospects of restraint and risk reduction, including the development and implementation of confidence-building measures and nuclear risk reduction mechanisms.