一个高度依赖进口的富裕国家的粮食进口需求与结构性中断、经济禁运和新冠肺炎疫情

IF 2.4 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI:10.1108/jadee-08-2022-0177
S. Kaitibie, Arnold Missiame, P. Irungu, John N. Ng’ombe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

卡塔尔是一个经济开放的富裕国家,可耕地有限。为了满足国内粮食需求,该国严重依赖粮食进口。此外,区域邻国实施的长达三年多的经济禁运和2019冠状病毒病大流行的协变量冲击表明,该国容易受到粮食不安全的影响,宏观经济数据可能出现结构性断裂。本文的目的是研究短期和长期的决定因素卡塔尔的总食品,肉类,乳制品和谷物的进口在结构性断裂的存在。设计/方法/方法作者使用了从卡塔尔计划和统计局获得的24年食品进口、国内生产总值(GDP)和消费者价格指数(CPI)数据。他们使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整框架和钱伯斯和波普的精确非线性聚合方法。在存在结构断裂的情况下,发现sunit根检验揭示了I(1)和I(0)个变量的混合物,标准协整技术不适用于这些变量。作者发现了卡塔尔结构变化与食品进口之间存在显著的长期关系的证据。脉冲响应函数表明,在进口受到外部冲击的情况下,中国将在3 / 4年内进行全面调整。研究局限性/意义该变量的一个标准差的外源冲击将使卡塔尔的粮食进口在第一期减少约2.5%,但在第三期后恢复。原创性/价值过去的总粮食需求研究未能超越标准的单位根检验,这使人们对其弹性估计的准确性产生了相当大的怀疑。为了提供更可信的发现,作者避免了这种情况。
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Food import demand with structural breaks, economic embargo and the COVID-19 pandemic in a wealthy, highly import-dependent country
PurposeQatar, a wealthy country with an open economy has limited arable land. To meet its domestic food demand, the country heavily relies on food imports. Additionally, the over three year-long economic embargo enforced by regional neighbors and the covariate shock of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the country's vulnerability to food insecurity and potential for structural breaks in macroeconomic data. The purpose of this paper is to examine short- and long-run determinants of Qatar's imports of aggregate food, meats, dairy and cereals in the presence of structural breaks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use 24 years of food imports, gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) data obtained from Qatar's Planning and Statistics Authority. They use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework and Chambers and Pope's exact nonlinear aggregation approach.FindingsUnit root tests in the presence of structural breaks reveal a mixture of I (1) and I (0) variables for which standard cointegration techniques do not apply. The authors found evidence of a significant long-run relationship between structural changes and food imports in Qatar. Impulse response functions indicate full adjustments within three-quarters of a year in the event of an exogenous shock to imports.Research limitations/implicationsAn exogenous shock of one standard deviation on this variable would reduce Qatar's food imports by about 2.5% during the first period but recover after the third period.Originality/valueThe failure of past aggregate food demand studies to go beyond standard unit root testing creates considerable doubt about the accuracy of their elasticity estimates. The authors avoid that to provide more credible findings.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
37.50%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: The Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies publishes double-blind peer-reviewed research on issues relevant to agriculture and food value chain in emerging economies in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe. The journal welcomes original research, particularly empirical/applied, quantitative and qualitative work on topics pertaining to policies, processes, and practices in the agribusiness arena in emerging economies to inform researchers, practitioners and policy makers
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