增长放缓与中部停滞:重新审视中部收入陷阱

IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Journal of Southeast Asian Economies Pub Date : 2021-06-29 DOI:10.1355/ae38-1e
Raveen Ekanayake
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摘要

摘要:本文首先将“中等收入陷阱”范式重新定义为中等收入增长放缓和停滞的发生率。随后,使用涵盖1997年至2017年65个中等收入国家的跨国面板数据对其决定因素进行了分析。研究结果表明,随着经济接近“刘易斯拐点”,低附加值劳动密集型经济活动的竞争力越来越弱,为进入技能和资本密集型增长阶段奠定了基础。为了成功实现中等收入转型,各国必须超越资本积累,投资发展人力资本能力,以在工资压力不断上升的情况下保持国际竞争力,并引导有利于高附加值经济活动的结构变革。
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Growth Slowdowns and Stagnation in the Middle: The Middle-Income Trap Revisited
Abstract:This study first reframes the “middle-income trap” paradigm as the incidence of growth slowdowns and stagnation in the middle. This is followed by an analysis of its determinants using a cross-country panel data covering sixty-five middle-income countries between 1997 and 2017. The findings suggest that, as economies approach the “Lewis turning point”, low value-added labour-intensive economic activities become less and less competitive, setting the stage for moving into a skill- and capital-intensive growth phase. To successfully navigate the middle-income transition, countries must look beyond capital accumulation, invest in developing human capital capabilities to sustain international competitiveness in the face of rising wage pressures, and induce structural change in favour of high value-added economic activities.
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期刊介绍: The Journal of Southeast Asian Economies (JSEAE) is a peer-reviewed multi-disciplinary journal focusing on economic issues in Southeast Asia. JSEAE features articles based on original research, research notes, policy notes, review articles and book reviews, and welcomes submissions of conceptual, theoretical and empirical articles preferably with substantive policy discussions. Original research articles and research notes can be country studies or cross-country comparative studies. For quantitative-oriented articles, authors should strive to ensure that their work is accessible to non-specialists. Submitted manuscripts undergo a rigorous peer-review process – two reviewers for original research articles and one reviewer for research notes and policy notes. The journal is published three times a year: April, August and December.
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